Category Archives: Top Stories

Nuk’Em: The Case For DeAndre Hopkins

The 2018 Fantasy Season is finally almost here! If you take fantasy football seriously you are most likely already mock drafting and identifying those impact players that you really want on your squad this season. This posting is based on PPR scoring, leagues of 12 or greater, and having the guts to draft the players you see as differentiators!

When preparing for drafts I prefer to tier players at positions and then select per tier which players I see as targets. Targets are based on few variables such as volume, health/injury history, age, schedule, and raw athletic ability. Looking at the top tier Wide Receivers for the 2018 season, my top five include Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Odell Beckham Jr, Keenan Allen and Michael Thomas.

I can hear all the “NO JULIO!?” chants as I write this and after rostering him in multiple leagues last season I am officially on team #NeverJulio despite his target monster status. The addition of Calvin Ridley coupled with Matt Ryan’s inability to get him the ball in the red-zone has me steering clear unless he falls considerably from his current ADP.

2018 PPR 12-Team Mock Scenario

Let’s say we had 1.04 pick with Lev Bell, Todd Gurley and David Johnson off the board. I would be considering Zeke Elliott, Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, and Saquon Barkley (no specific order there) going forward. In all honesty, I’m not a big fan of Elliott in PPR and his schedule this season. As a huge Giants fan, I even have reservations drafting Barkley this high with the new scheme and being a rookie. Not to mention playing in the harshest market in sports, the schedule, and the stupid signing of Jonathan Stewart to steal some goal-line work!

After those assessments, we come to Brown vs. Hopkins. I love Brown and have rostered him as much as possible to date. Honestly, he is probably the safest play at this point, but safest plays do not usually win championships. I understand the argument that you DO NOT get cute in the first round. However, taking a guy that you believe will outperform the others is a rational move. So if this scenario unfolded I’d take Hopkins at 1.04 and here’s why.

Volume Regardless of QB Play

Hopkin’s Career Stats per Pro Football Reference:

Year Age Games Targets Rec Yds Y/R TD
2013 21 16 91 52 802 15.4 2
2014 22 16 127 76 1210 15.9 6
2015 23 16 192 111 1521 13.7 11
2016 24 16 151 78 954 12.2 4
2017 25 15 174 96 1378 14.4 13
Career 79 735 413 5865 14.2 36

Those are career averages of 147 targets, 83 receptions, 1173 yards and 7 Tds. Those are pretty solid numbers for a guy that is only 26 years old and has 5 NFL seasons under his belt. Oh, and you all have heard that phrase “There is nothing better than availability” right? Over the last five seasons he has missed just one game. That game was last season with a toe injury. The larger issue has been the rotation of sub-par talent at Quarterback for the Texans since drafting Hopkins.

Take a look at who has taken a meaningful snap during each season of Hopkins career.

Season Starter #2 #3(s)
2013 Matt Schaub Case Keenum N/A
2014 Ryan Fitzpatrick Case Keenum Ryan Mallett
2015 Bryan Hoyer Ryan Mallett T.J.Yates/Brandon Weeden
2016 Brock Osweiler Tom Savage N/A
2017 Tom Savage Deshaun Watson T.J.Yates

With the exception of Fitzpatrick, Hoyer (maybe), and the savior of the Houston Texans, Deshaun Watson they all SUCK! Watson definitely resurrected the Texans offense when he took over in Week 2 of last season. Unfortunately, every Watson owner from last season can still feel the fantasy production pain when he tore his ACL in practice. That was right after they went into Seattle and played one of my personal favorite regular season contests of the 2017 season. So we have a sample, albeit it could be considered small, of what expectations we can make for the Hopkins/Watson connection in 2018.

Watson to Hopkins 2017 Statistics

With Watson under center, let’s take a look at Hopkins outputs from Weeks 2 – 8.

Week Against Targets Catches Yards TDs PPR 
Week 2 Bengals 13 7 73 0 14.3
Week 3 Patriots 8 7 76 0 14.6
Week 4 Titans 12 10 107 1 26.7
Week 5 Chiefs 12 4 52 3 27.2
Week 6 Browns 4 2 19 1 9.9
Week 8 Hawks 11 8 224 1 36.4
Totals 60 38 551 6 129.1
Average 10 6.33 91.83 1 21.5

Ok sure, he didn’t have a great game against the Browns but he got in the end-zone. Sure, he didn’t get in the end-zone versus the Bengals or Patriots, but he did have 7 receptions for 70+ yards in both of those contest. This represents a super solid floor, something Julio lacked in my opinion last season. Hopkins ceiling with Watson running the offense is very high. It is just as high and potentially higher than that of Brown (also an opinion). So if we were to extrapolate these stats out over a 16 games season he would have a stat line of:

Targets Receptions Yards TDs PPR Points
160 101 1469 16 344.3

I do think this is high on touchdowns and I would project closer to 12-14 which would take his PPR total down 12-24 points. So lets now take a look at the top 10 fantasy wideouts from ESPN PPR leagues in 2017 and how he compares.

PLAYER   REC   YDS    TD   TARGETS PPR PTS
Antonio Brown 101 1533 9 162 310.3
DeAndre Hopkins 96 1378 13 175 309.8
Keenan Allen 102 1393 6 159 284.2
Larry Fitzgerald 109 1156 6 162 261.4
Jarvis Landry 112 987 9 160 260
Michael Thomas 104 1245 5 149 258.5
Julio Jones 88 1444 3 149 251.9
Tyreek Hill 75 1183 7 105 245.2
Adam Thielen 91 1276 4 143 239.7
A.J. Green 75 1078 8 145 226.8

Hopkins finished less than one point behind Brown last season!

I have absolutely zero problems with taking Antonio Brown over DeAndre Hopkins. However, I think based on the data we have gone over above, there is a legitimate chance that barring injury of either player that Hopkins can produce the stats to finish as the WR1 in the 2018 fantasy football season. You don’t usually win your league sticking to the status quo and this is one player that can put up the numbers you need from your first pick week in and week out.

UNDER CONSTRUCTION

What Up Garage Fam!!??

 

We are currently going under the knife for a full makeover to prepare for the 2018 NFL Season. Our podcast has been moved to a new address but you can Subscribe on almost every podcast platform (I will provide links below).

We have made this change so that we can focus our site on Fantasy content and news articles that will be here to help you get ready to dominate thGGFS NEWe Fantasy gridiron.

As always, If you have any questions please email us or shoot us a Tweet @garageguysfs

 

Keep on rocking and get ready for a big game changing season!!

 

GGFS Podcast

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IMPORTANT UPDATE!!

Hey guys we have decided to move our Podcast to a new platform so that we can monitor our progress more efficiently. Please take some time today to visit our new feed and re subscribe there and also in iTunes! We hope this wont cause any inconvenience and look forward to continue bringing you all the best (and chilliest) content that we can. Aside from iTunes we will now be available on Stitcher, Google Play, Spotify, and Alexa.

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NASCAR: Americas Dirty Sidechick

Fast cars, fast women, the vibrations running up your legs… ooooh sweet NASCAR. The season is over and Martin Truex Jr took the cake in Miami in true fashion. We lost legend driver Dale Jr. to retirement and Denny Hamlin still hates Chase Elliott. Pretty certain anyway. So what comes now? February is right around the corner and I for one want to see more excitement out of this sport. I come from an era where you go round and fucking round and whoever wins just wins. That’s it. Dunzo. Now you’ve got all these stages and self proclaimed “Viewership Experts” trying to make it more of an “Acceptable” sport. HELLO!? This sport was created off the running of moonshine! Your fan base is a bunch of wild as fuck blue collar people. Shit I’m one of them. (Ive cut a mean rug at Dega in my day) What’s it gonna take to get the numbers up in this fucking sport!? Im on board with taking a history lesson and going back to the days of old. 80s and 90s style. Rock of ages. Marshall Tucker band type shit. We need that. The drivers need that. The Fans need that. If Donald Trump is making America great again why the fuck cant NASCAR be great again!? Everyone should at least go to one race in their lifetime and experience that type of madness. It’s basically like a BillsMafia Tailgate guest starred in an episode of Dukes of Hazard. It’s wild and I cant stress it enough. I’d love to see NASCAR make more of an impact in the fantasy sports world but sadly its gonna take the sport making it big again before we can see the amount of traffic fantasy football and baseball get. It’s kinda like fantasy hockey and with that unless you bring back more fighting, you’ll be fighting for ratings. Moral of the story is that NASCAR is a down home American ordeal and deep down inside of all of us there’s a wild hair waiting to sprout for fast, dirty, badass American speed.

What’s Eating Rickey Rage: Vol. 1

It’s week 15 of the NFL season and I have yet to find a legitimate reason not to utterly despise this league in the year 2017. The injuries are fucking insane and it’s the time of the year where fantasy players hunker down and try to rub out a win anyway they know how. The only problem is that unless you’re in some shitty fantasy league built by a robot your Waiver Wire has probably been gutted like a Turbo Man Doll in a mall toy store in 1996.

“So where do I go from here Rickey!?”

The only thing I can really say at this point is buckle up butter cup because you’re in for one hell of a ride. To be honest if you’ve made it this far and you haven’t been playing the waiver wire you deserve your fantasy football card taken from you and thrown into a dumpster fire because that’s where all your hopes and dreams are going this season.

People like that are a reason for about 20 percent of my rage and there’s a select few people that royally chap my ass in fantasy football. Here’s my top three.

#1. The Inquisitive One

We all know that one guy who asks everyone in the league who they should start this week. I enjoy this person to an extent because it allows me to give them misleading information because of how stupid they are to ask a competitor that question. We’re all in it to win it baby and if you want to get in that boat go right ahead and let me steer it for you. I put in a fuck load of research and the reality is that the average player dosent really have to. It only takes a damn minute to figure your lineup out and that’s it. If you really need to ask me weather you should bench Lev Bell for Alex Collins this week you most definitely eat pieces of shit for breakfast.

#2. The Non Shit Talker

Fantasy Football is a game of superiority. It’s guts, glory, and feeling the overwhelming joy of outscoring your opponent. This game was made for trash talk. Look at Michael Rapaport for instance. This guy is the absolute Fantasy Football Player role model (if you haven’t heard of him leave, just go now). Michael is talking shit when he’s winning and talking shit when he’s losing. It takes alot of skill to get on that level but if you’re not at least giving the occasional “Fuck You I Win” text after every victory then go play fantasy golf because this shit ain’t for you.

#3. The “I was too busy to set my lineup” guy

I FUCKING HATE YOU! This is the worst guy ever. If you’ve never had a guy like this in one of your leagues please DM me and shoot me an invitation because I’m on my way. Nothing is worse than getting a victory where you were up against four bye week players. I don’t care if you had lunch after church or you had family pictures, YOU KNOW THAT SUNDAY IS GAMEDAY! If you can’t take the time to go replace your players then you need to GTFO and FAST! I dont want any part of you in my life or fucking up my league. Focus on baking cookies and watching lifetime all day you shit. If Saturdays are for the boys then Sunday’s are for the men and if you can’t set your lineup after you agreed to play then give me your man card along with your resignation. Although a win is a win it can also become a win for anyone every week and that just fucks up the system.

So now that I’ve cleared the air it’s time for me to digress and get ready for due battle in my leagues because this is my shit and I wish each and everyone of you success as you March into week 15. Unless you’re playing me. In that case you can get fucked.