Category Archives: Wide Receivers

From The Top Shelf — Week 2

DON’T OVERREACT!!! This is the best advice I can give after week one. Whether you scored 200 points or only 52, don’t get crazy. If you won by 117 points, congrats. If you lost by 0.02 points, that sucks. Or if you lost by 117 points, don’t worry, everything will be okay. The worst thing we can do after one week is hastily make moves to try and right a ship that isn’t even sinking yet.

Even I had a few thoughts about trading David Johnson for a running back and wide receiver, but luckily I smoked myself back to reality. I think my favorite thing about smoking weed is that it helps me remain even keeled. I let my highs get really high (pun intended) so my lows never get too low. Best thing you can do is smoke a fat bowl of weed and fucking relax. Championships are not won or lost in the first week of fantasy football! Keep grindin’.

Without further ado, here are your Dank & Schwag Buds For Week 2:

Dank Buds of the Week:

QB: Philip Rivers: Philip Rivers is the finely rolled joint of NFL QBs. They both have been around for quite some time, they deliver fairly consistently whether on the road or at home, and even when bad, they are both kind of good. Last week was a tale of two halves for Rivers, but this week he gets to face a Buffalo team that just got shredded byPhilipRivers3.jpg the less-than-elite Joe Flacco for 3 TDs. The Chargers actually have more weapons than the Ravens and all of them should be on display this week. I am expecting big games from Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. I also believe Austn Ekeler and Antonio Gates get in the endzone too. All of this will be facilitated by Philip “The Joint” Rivers. I fully expect over 300 yards and at least 3 TDs.

RB: James Conner: Back in the day, I had a buddy that would empty out a Philly Blunt without cracking the paper. He would then proceed to empty out the tobacco and refill it with marijuana. He called it The Godfather. James Conner is not The Terminator; he is The Godfather. The Steelers emptied their backfield of Le’Veon Bell and refilled it with something potent as fuck. Conner had 36 touches for almost 200 yards and 2 TDs in a rain-soaked tie. While this should be a solid game for Big Ben, since they are playing at home, there is nothing to make me believe Conner want be pushing 30 touches again this week. While he is in the lineup, his volume will be second to none. I think it is a ploy to convince Bell they are fine without him, but who cares. Roll will JC for as long as you can and much like with The Godfather, you will not be disappointed. Take the word of the “Godfather” of fantasy analysis @evansilva.

WR: Nelson Agholor: Let us overlook the fact that he only had 33 yards last week. The important thing to focus on is the 10 targets with 8 catches. With Alshon still residing in the blue medical tent, Agholor is the only Philly wide receiver you want to own. Tampa Bay’s defensive secondary is so banged up they may suit up actual swiss cheese this weekend. They only registered one sack last week against the Saints too, so things are boding very well for Nick Foles and Agholor. Agholor should once again be a target monster against the Bucs, but I expect far more yardage and a score. Agholor reminds me of that friend who is always inconsistent with his supply. At times, he delivers some of the finest, dankest shit you ever had, but other times he brings nothing to the table. This week, Agholor is dank as fuck.

TE: Travis Kelce: It is not often when you have to list a top 3 tight end on a start list, but after last week’s performance, I think it important to mention him. We all knew that Pat Mahomes was a completely different quarterback than Alex Smith and that Kelce’s numbers were going to take a hit, but a lone catch for 6 yards is completely unacceptable for a guy being drafted in the 3rdround. The good thing is, he did have 6 targets in a game completely dominated by Tyreek Hill. The Steelers are a tough opponent for TEs, finishing second against them last season, but I think Hill steals a ton of their attention, opening up the field for Kelce to do work and take better advantage of his target shares. Start him with confidence. In 2013, a strain called Girl Scout Cookies took home the Cannabis Cup for Best Hybrid and Travis Kelce was drafted by the Kansas City Chiefs. Kelce is Girl Scout Cookies, a hybrid who can still fuck your shit up even after all these years.

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Schwag Buds of the Week

QB: Derek Carr: In 2015, I bought this amazing little bong. It had a loch ness monster engraved into it and about a week later I found a Nessy bowl piece that made it perfect. I took great care of it until last year when I dropped it off a balc2244999670_1b91526ccc_b.jpgony and it shattered into a million little pieces. Derek Carr is that destroyed bong. He was once amazing and it was thought he would be fucking people up for a long time, but last season, he shattered. He is now Derek Carr-bage. Monday night proved that he does not have what it takes to be a winner in this league. He not only didn’t complete many passes to the guys lined up outside, he barely even looked their way and he gets to face Von Miller and the Denver Broncos defense. They may not be the unit they have been in the past, but Carr-bage threw 3 picks last week and will throw a few more this week. If he is on your roster, drop him. I would rather have Sam Darnold as a backup QB than Carr-bage.

RB: Carlos Hyde: El Guapo had 22 touches, for 65 yards and a touchdown last week, but unfortunately, he only averaged 2.8 yards a carry. That is not good. He was lucky that Big Ben and the Steelers offense was inept enough that the game dictated him getting 22 carries. This week, the Cleveland Browns get to travel to The Big Easy for a game with the Saints. Drew Brees and his offense are quite adequate. So much so that I believe Duke Johnsonimages (5).jpgis the running back to play in the Browns backfield this week. The Saints will score points, the Browns will have to keep pace. Hyde just doesn’t feel to me that he will be a big part of the offense once the Saints get up 14-0 in the first quarter. I also think the Saints defense is better than they showed last week and the Browns will be the first team they feast on. Hyde is a no-go for me this weekend, much like my bubbler. I like it a lot, it just isn’t something I plan on utilizing this weekend.

WR: Robby Anderson: I love Robby Anderson, but I hate the way he is going to be used. Q-Dawg Enunwa is the clear target monster in that offense. Him and Darnold connected on a different level Monday Night. Anderson made a hell of a play on that deep touchdown reception, which was great, but it was himages (6).jpgis only target of the game. I need more than that from a WR2/3 or a flex play. I assume the Jets will do what they can to get Anderson more involved this week, but the Dolphins are not half bad in the secondary and was a tough matchup for WRs last season. Anderson will have his big games, but I fear he will end up more Darrius Heyward-Bey than Kenny Stills-like. Robby is like that gravity bong that you love to use but rarely do. It packs a heavy punch when it shows up, but there just isn’t enough usage to make it relevant.

TE: Jimmy Graham: Be prepared for Jimmy Graham to disappoint this season. In a game where the Green Bay Packers and a gimpy Aaron Rodgers were slinging the ball all over the place in the second half, Graham managed only 2 catches for 8 yards. If you are goinimages (7).jpgg to average 4 yards a catch, the least you can do is have 8 reception (right Nelson?) and maybe get in the endzone, but neither of those things happened. That’s the thing with Graham this year, I think he is going to be touchdown dependent. And with Devante Adams, Randall Cobb, GERONIMO, and soon to be Aaron Jones, I am not sure exactly how many Graham targets will end up with as a touchdown. This week, he gets to play against the Minnesota Vikings defense that gave up the least fantasy points per game to the position last season. If he doesn’t score a TD, Graham is as worthless as a broken Bic Lighter next to a giant bowl of danky nugs. You should definitely Puff, Puff, Pass on him this week.

Best of luck this week everyone. Dank Buds you should play and schwag buds you should seriously consider benching.

Hit up the Garage Guys Hotline at 929-430-GGFS with any waiver, trade, or start/sit questions for next week.

Those of you in the path of Hurricane Flo, be safe.

Smoke it if you got it!!!

The Alvin Kamara Special: 2018 ADPs For 2019 Keepers

A keeper is a player that you can keep and holdover for your team for the next season. For the 12-Man league that I participate in, we are allowed to only keep one player drafted in 2017, or players who were traded to you that were drafted in 2017, for the 2018 season. When you keep this player, the team  MUST give up the round that player was drafted in in 2017.

I will use my 2017 season of my 12 man league (Be You At BU) as an example. I was able to pick Alvin Kamara, Saints RB [2017 Average Draft Position (ADP) RB59] in the 13thround and was able to obtain him again in 2018 by just giving up the 2018 13thround pick (2018 ADP Overall 1.7). ADP is important in this respect, because Kamara well surpassed his ADP at RB59 from the 2017 season, making his value strong as a keeper for the 2018 season as a keeper.

All four position groups are represented by one player, with one, Alvin Kamara Special to finish the story off:

Quarterback

Sam Darnold, New York Jets, No Overall ADP

Disclaimer: I am a long die hard Jets fan, but after knowing and observing what good quarterback play is in the NFL, and watching a team who hasn’t had a QB like Sam Darnold since Joe Namath, I can promise you that this kid is going to be good, and I might go as far to say special.

The ceiling in the 21 year old mobile gunslinger from USC is extremely high. Seth Galina’s Football Outsiders Futures Evaluation of the number #3 overall pick explained it perfectly, “His weaknesses help reveal his true strengths.” His mastering of the Run-Pass-Option (RPO), his great arm strength, his control of the huddle, his vision on the field, his great ability to move within the pocket and run out of the pocket to make a play as a rookie, is extremely impressive.

The Jets landed with a pot of gold, and will invest in the 2019 Off Season in improving that offensive line to protect this pot of gold. Add Robby Anderson, Quincy Enunwa, Jermaine Kearse, Terrelle Pryor, Bilal Powell, Isiah Crowell this year with more talent with talent coming in 2019 (Jets have 9thmost salary cap space in the 2019 off-season), do not be surprised of Carson Wentz like 2017 coming from Sam Darnold in 2019.

Running Back

Kerryon Johnson, Detroit Lions, Overall ADP Round 5.2

This spot was a toss-up between Kerryon Johnson and Royce Freeman, as both will end up being starters for their respective teams by year’s end barring injury. Since Johnson’s ADP is lower than Freeman’s (3.9), he is the currently the better value to keep for the 2019 season. The Auburn RB has three down ability, to run inside and each the edge on the outside, with positive pass protection ability.

Detroit has brought in LeGarrette Blount for inside running and still has Theo Riddick in this backfield to catch some screen passes and work the edge, but the Lions realized that Johnson his ability to make defenders miss (57 forced missed tackles in 2017) was a special quality moved up eight picks  by giving up their second round pick and an additional 4throunder to the Patriots to get their guy. They intend to use him presently this year, and the future for many years to come. I was able to obtain Kerryon in round 8 in my 12 man keeper league, hoping it will be a steal. 5thand 6thround pick for Kerryon would be considered a steal for his value next year.

Wide Receiver

Robby Anderson, New York Jets, 2018 Avg Overall ADP Round 8.3

Alright, so you think I’m a homer since I’m a Jets fan, but dwell on this. As referenced with Sam Darnold, he’s going to be special and thrive in this league, so he needs a partner in crime to thrive with to grow, enter Robby Anderson. The 2016 undrafted free agent (UDFA) out of Temple had a breakout 2017 season with Josh McCown and garnered WR2 numbers. With Sam Darnold having a higher ceiling with more accuracy and off the cuff play-making than McCown, the potential for Anderson to be a WR1 with dangerous deep threat ability has potential to scare defensive coordinators for years to come.

If Anderson puts it together altogether after the catch in immediate routes, fantasy owners who drafted Anderson may salivate over the possibilities of his 2019 campaign. He may have a 1-2 game suspension coming down the wire this season or next, but if he’s putting up close to 90-100/1100-1300/ in 2018, that’s the opportunity for the UDFA to be drafted in the 2-3 rounds of the 2019 draft. He may be a risk, but the value may prove is too good not to take.

Tight End

Trey Burton, Chicago Bears, 2018 Avg Overall ADP 7.3

The former Eagle has made his way to another Andy Reid disciple, Bears Head Coach Matt Nagy, who was recently just left being the offensive coordinator for the Kansas City Chiefs under, you guessed it, Andy Reid. Thinking of the names of Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, Brent Celek that are in this coaching tree, Burton should not have a problem finding his name atop of the TE depth chart after backing up Ertz last year.

Earning positive PFF grades in pass protection, run blocking, and most importantly receiving last year, Burton is up for a huge role, one that may lead to a top 5, with maybe top 3 upside for 2019 based of Mitch Trubisky’s growth in his third year.

The Alvin Kamara Special: James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers, Overall ADP Round 14.2

I got a small hunch that Le’Veon Bell may not find his way on the 2019 Steelers roster. Why not have his elite backup handcuff for 2018 to 2019, James Conner, as an immediate 2019 RB1/RB2 with an elite offensive line, in rounds 14 or 15. This is the textbook definition of a perfect keeper, where the value in 2018 way exceeds expectation.

Yes, you are taking a chance with the unknown, but overall, Conner has looked good in place for Bell so far this preseason. Conner is an instant RB1 in fantasy if Bell goes down in 2018, and there’s no reason Conner is an instant RB1 when/if Bell leaves the Steelers after the 2019 season. Not bad for a hometown kid who had to beat the odds against cancer, and it looks like he can beat it again.

Now its your turn, who are you eyeing or have drafted with keepers in mind?

ADP Risers Wideouts!

With the NFL 2018 preseason underway it is time to find those best values to target in your fantasy drafts. This is the season of influx – with players dealing with not-so-well disclosed injuries and others making a name for themselves in camp and the preseason.Late summer is the time for average draft position (ADP) fluctuations which can make or break your draft.

Lets take a look at a couple recent draft risers that I think are worth monitoring in PPR Redraft leagues.

Anthony Miller – Chicago Bears

Miller was the 51st pick of the 2018 NFL Draft out of the University of Memphis, who the Bears traded up with the Patriots to secure. Standing 5’11” and 190 pounds Miller is of average stature, but he has the intangibles to make an immediate impact this season. During his tenure at Memphis, specifically 2016 and 2017 he topped 1,400 yards per season with an average over 15 yards per reception and had 14 and 18 touchdowns respectively. That is legitimate production regardless of conference.

Lets take a look at what he has done in Bears camp to date. Here is a tweet courtesy of @GBraggsJr that gives you a taste of his potential.

Whenever taking a rookie there is certainly risk. This guy is one bet I would take at his current ADP of the mid 13th round, which is music to my ears. If Miller does blow up and has an amazing preseason this is certain to rise into the late single digit rounds or higher. He is currently listed as WR3 on the Bears initial depth charts, behind Taylor Gabriel, but I have a feeling he will climb to the WR2 spot if he continues to do what he does.

Jarvis Landry – Cleveland Browns

The Browns made a ton of off-season additions to strengthen their roster. They traded a 2018 4th and 7th round picks to the Miami Dolphins to acquire the 25-year-old target monster. Following the trade the Browns went all in on Landry signing him to a five-year $75 million contract with $47 million guaranteed. I am willing to bet that phone call with his boy Odell Beckham Jr. was interesting, as his team is currently in negotiations with the Giants to lock up an even larger deal (more on that to come)!

The more recent news that is skyrocketing his ADP is the unknown surrounding the Josh Gordon situation, while he is in couseling for his well documented addiction issues. The trade of Corey Coleman to the Bills also impacts this as does the news of Antonio Callaway’s receent citation for weed possession.

On the flip side, I believe the hype around the “Hard Knocks” series could drive his ADP up above his value, considering the fact that Gordon will most likely return, Dez is rumored to be in discussions with the Browns, and Duke Johnson Jr. will always get his targets. Here is a taste of the hype couresty of @JzoSports:

Since July 30th, Juice’s ADP has risen from the mid-5th round to the mid-4th, couresy of Fantasy Insiders (big thanks to the Man @FantasyADHD !) This is a great tool for montoring ADP that can pay dividends for your draft preparations. My guess is that if you are drafting in a competitive league that drafts around the end of preseason this could rise to the 3rd dependant on the news surrounding Dez and Gordon.

Marquise Goodwin – San Fransisco 49ers

Goodwin is a potential target-monster in an offense constructed by Kyle Shanahan. This guy can absolutely fly – clocked at a 40 speed of 4.27 per his NFL Profile. He also showed chemistry with Jimmy G which we would expect to continue going into the 2018 season, after a full schedule of OTAs and camp. In March, the 9ers also signed him to 3-year $20.3M contract extension, which leads us to believe they have large plans for him.

Here is a breakdown of his stats with Jimmy G at the healm in a Kyle Shanahan offense  from week 12 of the 2017 season.

Week Tgt Rec Yds Yards/Rec TD
12 8 8 99 12.4 0
13 12 6 106 17.7 0
14 13 10 114 11.4 0
15 6 3 37 12.3 0
16 4 2 28 14 1
Average 8.6 5.8 76.8 13.6

Goodwin ADP has risen from the mid-8th to late-6th round over the last month. The expected target share of 8-10 targets/game support that jump. However, my concern is with the redzone shares and lack of TD volume with Garoppolo to-date. Goodwin is a freak athlete that I will be monitoring over the next few weeks. He has a high ceiling but also a low floor so this is one to watch over the remaining preseason.

That is a look at a few Wideouts we see climbing draft boards. Who are you targeting or watching closely as your drafts get closer to fruition?

Nuk’Em: The Case For DeAndre Hopkins

The 2018 Fantasy Season is finally almost here! If you take fantasy football seriously you are most likely already mock drafting and identifying those impact players that you really want on your squad this season. This posting is based on PPR scoring, leagues of 12 or greater, and having the guts to draft the players you see as differentiators!

When preparing for drafts I prefer to tier players at positions and then select per tier which players I see as targets. Targets are based on few variables such as volume, health/injury history, age, schedule, and raw athletic ability. Looking at the top tier Wide Receivers for the 2018 season, my top five include Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Odell Beckham Jr, Keenan Allen and Michael Thomas.

I can hear all the “NO JULIO!?” chants as I write this and after rostering him in multiple leagues last season I am officially on team #NeverJulio despite his target monster status. The addition of Calvin Ridley coupled with Matt Ryan’s inability to get him the ball in the red-zone has me steering clear unless he falls considerably from his current ADP.

2018 PPR 12-Team Mock Scenario

Let’s say we had 1.04 pick with Lev Bell, Todd Gurley and David Johnson off the board. I would be considering Zeke Elliott, Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, and Saquon Barkley (no specific order there) going forward. In all honesty, I’m not a big fan of Elliott in PPR and his schedule this season. As a huge Giants fan, I even have reservations drafting Barkley this high with the new scheme and being a rookie. Not to mention playing in the harshest market in sports, the schedule, and the stupid signing of Jonathan Stewart to steal some goal-line work!

After those assessments, we come to Brown vs. Hopkins. I love Brown and have rostered him as much as possible to date. Honestly, he is probably the safest play at this point, but safest plays do not usually win championships. I understand the argument that you DO NOT get cute in the first round. However, taking a guy that you believe will outperform the others is a rational move. So if this scenario unfolded I’d take Hopkins at 1.04 and here’s why.

Volume Regardless of QB Play

Hopkin’s Career Stats per Pro Football Reference:

Year Age Games Targets Rec Yds Y/R TD
2013 21 16 91 52 802 15.4 2
2014 22 16 127 76 1210 15.9 6
2015 23 16 192 111 1521 13.7 11
2016 24 16 151 78 954 12.2 4
2017 25 15 174 96 1378 14.4 13
Career 79 735 413 5865 14.2 36

Those are career averages of 147 targets, 83 receptions, 1173 yards and 7 Tds. Those are pretty solid numbers for a guy that is only 26 years old and has 5 NFL seasons under his belt. Oh, and you all have heard that phrase “There is nothing better than availability” right? Over the last five seasons he has missed just one game. That game was last season with a toe injury. The larger issue has been the rotation of sub-par talent at Quarterback for the Texans since drafting Hopkins.

Take a look at who has taken a meaningful snap during each season of Hopkins career.

Season Starter #2 #3(s)
2013 Matt Schaub Case Keenum N/A
2014 Ryan Fitzpatrick Case Keenum Ryan Mallett
2015 Bryan Hoyer Ryan Mallett T.J.Yates/Brandon Weeden
2016 Brock Osweiler Tom Savage N/A
2017 Tom Savage Deshaun Watson T.J.Yates

With the exception of Fitzpatrick, Hoyer (maybe), and the savior of the Houston Texans, Deshaun Watson they all SUCK! Watson definitely resurrected the Texans offense when he took over in Week 2 of last season. Unfortunately, every Watson owner from last season can still feel the fantasy production pain when he tore his ACL in practice. That was right after they went into Seattle and played one of my personal favorite regular season contests of the 2017 season. So we have a sample, albeit it could be considered small, of what expectations we can make for the Hopkins/Watson connection in 2018.

Watson to Hopkins 2017 Statistics

With Watson under center, let’s take a look at Hopkins outputs from Weeks 2 – 8.

Week Against Targets Catches Yards TDs PPR 
Week 2 Bengals 13 7 73 0 14.3
Week 3 Patriots 8 7 76 0 14.6
Week 4 Titans 12 10 107 1 26.7
Week 5 Chiefs 12 4 52 3 27.2
Week 6 Browns 4 2 19 1 9.9
Week 8 Hawks 11 8 224 1 36.4
Totals 60 38 551 6 129.1
Average 10 6.33 91.83 1 21.5

Ok sure, he didn’t have a great game against the Browns but he got in the end-zone. Sure, he didn’t get in the end-zone versus the Bengals or Patriots, but he did have 7 receptions for 70+ yards in both of those contest. This represents a super solid floor, something Julio lacked in my opinion last season. Hopkins ceiling with Watson running the offense is very high. It is just as high and potentially higher than that of Brown (also an opinion). So if we were to extrapolate these stats out over a 16 games season he would have a stat line of:

Targets Receptions Yards TDs PPR Points
160 101 1469 16 344.3

I do think this is high on touchdowns and I would project closer to 12-14 which would take his PPR total down 12-24 points. So lets now take a look at the top 10 fantasy wideouts from ESPN PPR leagues in 2017 and how he compares.

PLAYER   REC   YDS    TD   TARGETS PPR PTS
Antonio Brown 101 1533 9 162 310.3
DeAndre Hopkins 96 1378 13 175 309.8
Keenan Allen 102 1393 6 159 284.2
Larry Fitzgerald 109 1156 6 162 261.4
Jarvis Landry 112 987 9 160 260
Michael Thomas 104 1245 5 149 258.5
Julio Jones 88 1444 3 149 251.9
Tyreek Hill 75 1183 7 105 245.2
Adam Thielen 91 1276 4 143 239.7
A.J. Green 75 1078 8 145 226.8

Hopkins finished less than one point behind Brown last season!

I have absolutely zero problems with taking Antonio Brown over DeAndre Hopkins. However, I think based on the data we have gone over above, there is a legitimate chance that barring injury of either player that Hopkins can produce the stats to finish as the WR1 in the 2018 fantasy football season. You don’t usually win your league sticking to the status quo and this is one player that can put up the numbers you need from your first pick week in and week out.