Category Archives: Quarter Backs

From The Top Shelf — Week 2

DON’T OVERREACT!!! This is the best advice I can give after week one. Whether you scored 200 points or only 52, don’t get crazy. If you won by 117 points, congrats. If you lost by 0.02 points, that sucks. Or if you lost by 117 points, don’t worry, everything will be okay. The worst thing we can do after one week is hastily make moves to try and right a ship that isn’t even sinking yet.

Even I had a few thoughts about trading David Johnson for a running back and wide receiver, but luckily I smoked myself back to reality. I think my favorite thing about smoking weed is that it helps me remain even keeled. I let my highs get really high (pun intended) so my lows never get too low. Best thing you can do is smoke a fat bowl of weed and fucking relax. Championships are not won or lost in the first week of fantasy football! Keep grindin’.

Without further ado, here are your Dank & Schwag Buds For Week 2:

Dank Buds of the Week:

QB: Philip Rivers: Philip Rivers is the finely rolled joint of NFL QBs. They both have been around for quite some time, they deliver fairly consistently whether on the road or at home, and even when bad, they are both kind of good. Last week was a tale of two halves for Rivers, but this week he gets to face a Buffalo team that just got shredded byPhilipRivers3.jpg the less-than-elite Joe Flacco for 3 TDs. The Chargers actually have more weapons than the Ravens and all of them should be on display this week. I am expecting big games from Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. I also believe Austn Ekeler and Antonio Gates get in the endzone too. All of this will be facilitated by Philip “The Joint” Rivers. I fully expect over 300 yards and at least 3 TDs.

RB: James Conner: Back in the day, I had a buddy that would empty out a Philly Blunt without cracking the paper. He would then proceed to empty out the tobacco and refill it with marijuana. He called it The Godfather. James Conner is not The Terminator; he is The Godfather. The Steelers emptied their backfield of Le’Veon Bell and refilled it with something potent as fuck. Conner had 36 touches for almost 200 yards and 2 TDs in a rain-soaked tie. While this should be a solid game for Big Ben, since they are playing at home, there is nothing to make me believe Conner want be pushing 30 touches again this week. While he is in the lineup, his volume will be second to none. I think it is a ploy to convince Bell they are fine without him, but who cares. Roll will JC for as long as you can and much like with The Godfather, you will not be disappointed. Take the word of the “Godfather” of fantasy analysis @evansilva.

WR: Nelson Agholor: Let us overlook the fact that he only had 33 yards last week. The important thing to focus on is the 10 targets with 8 catches. With Alshon still residing in the blue medical tent, Agholor is the only Philly wide receiver you want to own. Tampa Bay’s defensive secondary is so banged up they may suit up actual swiss cheese this weekend. They only registered one sack last week against the Saints too, so things are boding very well for Nick Foles and Agholor. Agholor should once again be a target monster against the Bucs, but I expect far more yardage and a score. Agholor reminds me of that friend who is always inconsistent with his supply. At times, he delivers some of the finest, dankest shit you ever had, but other times he brings nothing to the table. This week, Agholor is dank as fuck.

TE: Travis Kelce: It is not often when you have to list a top 3 tight end on a start list, but after last week’s performance, I think it important to mention him. We all knew that Pat Mahomes was a completely different quarterback than Alex Smith and that Kelce’s numbers were going to take a hit, but a lone catch for 6 yards is completely unacceptable for a guy being drafted in the 3rdround. The good thing is, he did have 6 targets in a game completely dominated by Tyreek Hill. The Steelers are a tough opponent for TEs, finishing second against them last season, but I think Hill steals a ton of their attention, opening up the field for Kelce to do work and take better advantage of his target shares. Start him with confidence. In 2013, a strain called Girl Scout Cookies took home the Cannabis Cup for Best Hybrid and Travis Kelce was drafted by the Kansas City Chiefs. Kelce is Girl Scout Cookies, a hybrid who can still fuck your shit up even after all these years.

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Schwag Buds of the Week

QB: Derek Carr: In 2015, I bought this amazing little bong. It had a loch ness monster engraved into it and about a week later I found a Nessy bowl piece that made it perfect. I took great care of it until last year when I dropped it off a balc2244999670_1b91526ccc_b.jpgony and it shattered into a million little pieces. Derek Carr is that destroyed bong. He was once amazing and it was thought he would be fucking people up for a long time, but last season, he shattered. He is now Derek Carr-bage. Monday night proved that he does not have what it takes to be a winner in this league. He not only didn’t complete many passes to the guys lined up outside, he barely even looked their way and he gets to face Von Miller and the Denver Broncos defense. They may not be the unit they have been in the past, but Carr-bage threw 3 picks last week and will throw a few more this week. If he is on your roster, drop him. I would rather have Sam Darnold as a backup QB than Carr-bage.

RB: Carlos Hyde: El Guapo had 22 touches, for 65 yards and a touchdown last week, but unfortunately, he only averaged 2.8 yards a carry. That is not good. He was lucky that Big Ben and the Steelers offense was inept enough that the game dictated him getting 22 carries. This week, the Cleveland Browns get to travel to The Big Easy for a game with the Saints. Drew Brees and his offense are quite adequate. So much so that I believe Duke Johnsonimages (5).jpgis the running back to play in the Browns backfield this week. The Saints will score points, the Browns will have to keep pace. Hyde just doesn’t feel to me that he will be a big part of the offense once the Saints get up 14-0 in the first quarter. I also think the Saints defense is better than they showed last week and the Browns will be the first team they feast on. Hyde is a no-go for me this weekend, much like my bubbler. I like it a lot, it just isn’t something I plan on utilizing this weekend.

WR: Robby Anderson: I love Robby Anderson, but I hate the way he is going to be used. Q-Dawg Enunwa is the clear target monster in that offense. Him and Darnold connected on a different level Monday Night. Anderson made a hell of a play on that deep touchdown reception, which was great, but it was himages (6).jpgis only target of the game. I need more than that from a WR2/3 or a flex play. I assume the Jets will do what they can to get Anderson more involved this week, but the Dolphins are not half bad in the secondary and was a tough matchup for WRs last season. Anderson will have his big games, but I fear he will end up more Darrius Heyward-Bey than Kenny Stills-like. Robby is like that gravity bong that you love to use but rarely do. It packs a heavy punch when it shows up, but there just isn’t enough usage to make it relevant.

TE: Jimmy Graham: Be prepared for Jimmy Graham to disappoint this season. In a game where the Green Bay Packers and a gimpy Aaron Rodgers were slinging the ball all over the place in the second half, Graham managed only 2 catches for 8 yards. If you are goinimages (7).jpgg to average 4 yards a catch, the least you can do is have 8 reception (right Nelson?) and maybe get in the endzone, but neither of those things happened. That’s the thing with Graham this year, I think he is going to be touchdown dependent. And with Devante Adams, Randall Cobb, GERONIMO, and soon to be Aaron Jones, I am not sure exactly how many Graham targets will end up with as a touchdown. This week, he gets to play against the Minnesota Vikings defense that gave up the least fantasy points per game to the position last season. If he doesn’t score a TD, Graham is as worthless as a broken Bic Lighter next to a giant bowl of danky nugs. You should definitely Puff, Puff, Pass on him this week.

Best of luck this week everyone. Dank Buds you should play and schwag buds you should seriously consider benching.

Hit up the Garage Guys Hotline at 929-430-GGFS with any waiver, trade, or start/sit questions for next week.

Those of you in the path of Hurricane Flo, be safe.

Smoke it if you got it!!!

Bluff on the Rivers

In life, we are faced with choices that must be made. There are days when those situations are minor, like choosing what to eat for dinner, or where to spend a Saturday evening. Simple things. Other days, you can find yourself faced with making life-altering decisions, like where to attend school, or whether you want children or not, or who to play at QB on your fantasy roster.

You know, real game-changers. Here’s a tale of fantasy self-destruction and how it can draw similarities to real life success-deprivation.

Decisions are made every single day. They’re made every week, every month, every season. A good decision can bring about glorious change, while a bad decision can leave you wondering what could have been. Good decisions often lead to success. Success, even at the most elementary level, can bring about a state of euphoria. So what can a bad decision do? I’ll tell you…

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A bad decision can derail progress. It can cause turmoil to flourish where potential once lived. Bad decisions are rooted in poor analysis, bad judgement, and a lack of trust. A decision, when bad enough, can be life-changing. Alone, it can be the downfall of a once semi-prominent Southern California professional football franchise, as well as a budding Fantasy Football team with no titles, about to endure its third straight year in the playoffs. Let me explain.

I’m good at Fantasy Football. At least I think I am. I’ve made the playoffs for the last three seasons and have finished 12-2, 10-4, 12-2. I have a deep love for Football that I developed as a child, and it’s only increased as an adult. So why is it that I don’t win titles? What is it that keeps me from succeeding? It’s bad decisions. The Chargers, sadly, know all about this.

Like the L.A. Chargers, my poor franchise history is rooted in bad judgement, poor analysis, and a lack of trust. Even more coincidental, both of our decisions involved the same two players, just decades apart.

In 2005, the L.A. Chargers(then San Diego) made a decision that would directly impact their future as a championship contender. They let Drew Brees walk. Now I get it, Philip Rivers is consistent, and he’s had a pretty good career as a gunslinger, but this was a bad decision. Although Rivers is a competitor, he is not Drew Brees.

20100212-tows-drew-brees-1-300x205.jpgThey found this out in 2010, when Brees delivered a Super Bowl to the Saints, and the city of New Orleans, instead of San Diego. This realization was known. It was understood then, that no matter how good it felt in the moment to take Rivers, it wasn’t the right choice. Although they have enjoyed consistently strong QB play from Philip Rivers over the span of his career, Chargers fans would’ve loved to have been the ones hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.

I too made the mistake of not betting on Brees. It was just last year, but I remember it vividly. I was 12-2, in first place, and rolling through the schedule. Then it happened…the decision that would once again prolong my title drought. I chose Rivers.

I can’t tell you why, and I can’t make it seem better than it is. I had Brees all season, and he was great. Not his normal out-of-this-world great, but really damn good. I took a gamble. I don’t know if it was his personality, or the fact that he has eight children, but something about Rivers made me think he was the one. Brees, again, proved that wrong.

Why is it that I doubted Brees? Is it because I fell into the same trap the Chargers did? download (5).jpgDid I fall victim to Rivers and his 6’5” 228 pound frame? I did. The Chargers made the same call. They wanted the sparkly new ride, the one with more “potential”.

Brees is an average-sized man. Obviously, he’s a bit more built than most of us, but his heart is nowhere near average. He’s proved this throughout his career by being one of the most electrifying arms the league has ever seen, and bringing a Super Bowl to the city of New Orleans, all while being a seemingly subtle 6’0” 209 lbs. The dude can ball, no matter his size. He’s a Hall of Fame QB, whether you look at his film, his stats, or his demeanor.

On film, Brees is an extremely accurate passer with great field awareness. He runs an offense designed around his skill set and he gets the maximum results out of the weapons around him. His short-range and mid-range games are unmatched other than by maybe Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. His pristine passing-vision is apparent when he throws the deep ball, placing it in the smallest of windows.

His stats are as elite as they come. There’s not much to explain other than he throws the ball a lot, and he throws it well. Brees is credited with having passed for over 5,000 yards in five different seasons. He did so in 2008, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2016. No other QB has ever done this more than once. Brees is also most likely going to break the record for passing yards in a career, which is currently held by Peyton Manning.

Rank Player Yards
1 Peyton Manning 71,940
2 Brett Favre 71,838
3 Drew Brees 70,445
4 Tom Brady 66,159
5 Dan Marino 61,361
6 Eli Manning 51,682
7 John Elway 51,475
8 Ben Roethlisberger 51,065
9 Philip Rivers 50,348
10 Warren Moon 49,325

Considering Brees has averages 4,841 yards a season, it’s completely possible he becomes the NFL’s all time passing yards leader somewhere in the middle of his 2018 campaign.

Normally, I wouldn’t purposely pile on evidence of my fantasy short-comings, but I feel it’s necessary. If I can’t admit my faults, and try to improve myself when I have failed, how can I expect others to do the same? So I write of these experiences, to hopefully deter future fantasy footballers from contracting the same fate.

In closing, just don’t overthink it. Play the guy that always proves it. There are very few sure things you get in this life, but Drew Brees throwing for 4,000+ yards in a season is as good of a bet as you can make.

images (3).jpgIt’s the bet that neither I, nor the Chargers, were able to make. To be as abundantly clear as I can be…If you ever find yourself choosing Philip Rivers over Sir Brees, in a season-defining moment, just reconsider.

Bluff on the Rivers, Bet on the Brees.

Thanks for reading! If you liked this story, and want to hear more from Fantasy Guy and the rest of the Garage Guys follow @garageguysfs  and myself @fantasyguy93 on Twitter for daily updates from around the sports world!

From The Top Shelf (Vol. 1)

Fantasy football and marijuana are intrinsically linked. Think about it; there are few things in this world that create as much anxiety as fantasy football. Whether it is the draft, waiver pickups, trades, or setting lineups, your blood pressure will rise exponentially as the season progresses. There is nothing, in my estimation, that cures anxiety (and anything else that ails you) quite like some danky cannabis. Indicas, Sativas, and Hybrids. THC oil pens, crumble wax, and edibles. Whatever is your pleasure.

For fantasy football purposes, the most relatable terms are “Dank” and “Schwag”. For those of you outside the smoking circle, dank refers to a very potent, top-shelf strain of marijuana; one with dark and sticky buds (think Antonio Brown). Schwag is quite the opposite. It refers to some low-grade, bottom shelf bud that is dry, full of seeds and stems, and does not quite get the job done (think DeVante Parker). Dank Buds you should play and schwag buds you should seriously consider benching.

Without further ado, here are your Dank & Schwag Buds for Week 1:

Dank Buds of the Week:images (1)

QB: Matthew Stafford: I have a bong that I have owned for almost 7 years. It is about a foot tall, has a decent sized bowl, and always hits very well. That bong is named after Matthew Stafford. Both are always consistent and have earned my confidence that they will always be there. Stafford has not missed a game since 2010 and is extremely reliable, having finished in the top 10 in 6 out of the last 7 years. The Lions are a pass first team with questions surrounding the run game. Golden Tate and Marvin Jones are both lethal and get to start the season at home versus a bottom 3rd defense. The Jets allowed the 3rd most TDs to quarterbacks last season with 28, against only 10 picks.

RB: James White: There is one strain of weed that I am always going back to called Super Elmer’s Glue. James White is Belichick & Brady’s Super Elmer’s Glue. No matter what changes have come to the Patriots backfield over the years, White is the constant. White has earned their trust and seems to be the only healthy running back in the New England backfield. Under normal circumstances, he is no more than a flex option, but against this aggressive Texans defense, White is going to be a PPR beast. But these are not normal circumstances. The patriots are lacking pass-catchers, so while White may not get the carries one would hope, he should more than make up for it in the pass game, at least until Julian Edelman returns.

WR: Cooper Kupp: My love for Cooper Kupp has not been understated. I think he will end up as the #1 pass-catching option on the Rams high powered offense. Kupp is like a THC oil vape pen—small, quick hitting, and always delivering. The Raiders are a dumpster fire right now and I expect Kupp to reap the benefits. The Raiders defense had the fewest interceptions in the league last season and traded away a large portion of their sacks. Kupp was one of the league leaders last season in Red Zone Targets and will have a coming out party on Monday night and the summer reports of Kupp and Jared Goff becoming BFFs will be confirmed.

TE: Austin Seferian-Jenkins:Does not matter how stoned you are because every fantasy football players knows to play your tight ends against the New York Giants. They were historically bad at defending TEs last season and while I expect them to be better, I do not expect a miracle turnaround. ASJ has never been able to stay healthy, but did play the most games of any season in his career last year. He also caught 50 passes for the Jets last season.

I expect him to be a big part of the Jags passing game, especially since they no longer have the Allen Brothers (Robinson & Hurns) and recently lost Marquis Lee for the season. There are a ton of targets available for ASJ. As long as he stays on the field, I think he has a great shot at being a top 10 TE, but the health issues make it hard to consider him more than a matchup play. I consider ASJ to be a Sativa. When he is there, he does a great job, but it is definitely not my preference.

Schwag Buds of the Week:

QB: Jimmy Garoppolo: Don’t get me wrong, as a Niner fan, I love Jimmy G and all he will bring to the franchise, but this week, on the road against a Vikings defense that only allowed 11 receiving touchdowns last year, you have to sit him. Keep in mind that the 49ers running game has some huge question marks after the season-ending ACL tear suffered by Jerick McKinnon. Alfred Morris and Matt Breida are solid, but not spectacular. download (3).jpg

The offensive line is average at best and will have its hands full with the Minnesota font seven. Jimmy G is like smoking a dab; it is new and sexy and you know it will do damage, but there is a time and a place for it. Choose wisely or it could go bad quickly.

RB: Devonta Freeman: I have made my dislike of Devonta Freeman abundantly clear—I believe Tevin Coleman is the better running back, but we should not disregard the impact Freeman has had over the years. He has been a RB1/RB2 for the last few years. But looking closer, you will see that his carries and targets have gone down each of the last 3 seasons. Last year in the playoffs, against the very same Eagles defense he faces this week, Freeman ran 10 times for 7 yards.

His best chance of having a productive fantasy week against a top 3 defense is through the air, but TC is the better receiving option out of the backfield. He is most likely your second round pick, so you are going to play him, just taper your expectation. Freeman is like an edible that never really kicks in; the expectations are always high, but the result is a huge disappointment.

WR: Josh Gordon: I am expecting Josh Gordon to have a great season, but it will not start week 1 against Pittsburgh. I am basing this pick solely on uncertainty. He has been away from the team for the whole off-season and Hue Jackson has already named another Cannabis Connoisseur, Antonio Callaway, starter for this week.

download (4).jpgHe can put up solid numbers even with minimal targets, but this is not the week to take that chance. Steelers secondary isn’t horrible and their pass rush should be much improved. Moreover, there is talk of a hamstring injury, which may limit his usage as well. Gordon is like a finely rolled blunt filled with kush. You know there is a time and a place to use it, but this isn’t the week.

TE:  Jordan Reed & Tyler Eifert: There is not a strain of weed on this planet or any other that would cause me to put one of these two players in my starting lineup this week. I do not doubt that these are two of the most talented tight ends in the NFL, but I also recognize that, much like my bong I have named Matthew Stafford, both of these guys are made of glass. Reed has started only 25 games the last 5 seasons; Eifert has started 30 over the same time-frame.download (1).jpg

Playing these two comes with added aggravation and an increase in blood pressure. Do not let their potential dictate your starting lineup. They remind me of that friend who claims to have the dankest bud of all time, but when he brings it over, you see its dry, brown, and full of broken stems.

The Alvin Kamara Special: 2018 ADPs For 2019 Keepers

A keeper is a player that you can keep and holdover for your team for the next season. For the 12-Man league that I participate in, we are allowed to only keep one player drafted in 2017, or players who were traded to you that were drafted in 2017, for the 2018 season. When you keep this player, the team  MUST give up the round that player was drafted in in 2017.

I will use my 2017 season of my 12 man league (Be You At BU) as an example. I was able to pick Alvin Kamara, Saints RB [2017 Average Draft Position (ADP) RB59] in the 13thround and was able to obtain him again in 2018 by just giving up the 2018 13thround pick (2018 ADP Overall 1.7). ADP is important in this respect, because Kamara well surpassed his ADP at RB59 from the 2017 season, making his value strong as a keeper for the 2018 season as a keeper.

All four position groups are represented by one player, with one, Alvin Kamara Special to finish the story off:

Quarterback

Sam Darnold, New York Jets, No Overall ADP

Disclaimer: I am a long die hard Jets fan, but after knowing and observing what good quarterback play is in the NFL, and watching a team who hasn’t had a QB like Sam Darnold since Joe Namath, I can promise you that this kid is going to be good, and I might go as far to say special.

The ceiling in the 21 year old mobile gunslinger from USC is extremely high. Seth Galina’s Football Outsiders Futures Evaluation of the number #3 overall pick explained it perfectly, “His weaknesses help reveal his true strengths.” His mastering of the Run-Pass-Option (RPO), his great arm strength, his control of the huddle, his vision on the field, his great ability to move within the pocket and run out of the pocket to make a play as a rookie, is extremely impressive.

The Jets landed with a pot of gold, and will invest in the 2019 Off Season in improving that offensive line to protect this pot of gold. Add Robby Anderson, Quincy Enunwa, Jermaine Kearse, Terrelle Pryor, Bilal Powell, Isiah Crowell this year with more talent with talent coming in 2019 (Jets have 9thmost salary cap space in the 2019 off-season), do not be surprised of Carson Wentz like 2017 coming from Sam Darnold in 2019.

Running Back

Kerryon Johnson, Detroit Lions, Overall ADP Round 5.2

This spot was a toss-up between Kerryon Johnson and Royce Freeman, as both will end up being starters for their respective teams by year’s end barring injury. Since Johnson’s ADP is lower than Freeman’s (3.9), he is the currently the better value to keep for the 2019 season. The Auburn RB has three down ability, to run inside and each the edge on the outside, with positive pass protection ability.

Detroit has brought in LeGarrette Blount for inside running and still has Theo Riddick in this backfield to catch some screen passes and work the edge, but the Lions realized that Johnson his ability to make defenders miss (57 forced missed tackles in 2017) was a special quality moved up eight picks  by giving up their second round pick and an additional 4throunder to the Patriots to get their guy. They intend to use him presently this year, and the future for many years to come. I was able to obtain Kerryon in round 8 in my 12 man keeper league, hoping it will be a steal. 5thand 6thround pick for Kerryon would be considered a steal for his value next year.

Wide Receiver

Robby Anderson, New York Jets, 2018 Avg Overall ADP Round 8.3

Alright, so you think I’m a homer since I’m a Jets fan, but dwell on this. As referenced with Sam Darnold, he’s going to be special and thrive in this league, so he needs a partner in crime to thrive with to grow, enter Robby Anderson. The 2016 undrafted free agent (UDFA) out of Temple had a breakout 2017 season with Josh McCown and garnered WR2 numbers. With Sam Darnold having a higher ceiling with more accuracy and off the cuff play-making than McCown, the potential for Anderson to be a WR1 with dangerous deep threat ability has potential to scare defensive coordinators for years to come.

If Anderson puts it together altogether after the catch in immediate routes, fantasy owners who drafted Anderson may salivate over the possibilities of his 2019 campaign. He may have a 1-2 game suspension coming down the wire this season or next, but if he’s putting up close to 90-100/1100-1300/ in 2018, that’s the opportunity for the UDFA to be drafted in the 2-3 rounds of the 2019 draft. He may be a risk, but the value may prove is too good not to take.

Tight End

Trey Burton, Chicago Bears, 2018 Avg Overall ADP 7.3

The former Eagle has made his way to another Andy Reid disciple, Bears Head Coach Matt Nagy, who was recently just left being the offensive coordinator for the Kansas City Chiefs under, you guessed it, Andy Reid. Thinking of the names of Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, Brent Celek that are in this coaching tree, Burton should not have a problem finding his name atop of the TE depth chart after backing up Ertz last year.

Earning positive PFF grades in pass protection, run blocking, and most importantly receiving last year, Burton is up for a huge role, one that may lead to a top 5, with maybe top 3 upside for 2019 based of Mitch Trubisky’s growth in his third year.

The Alvin Kamara Special: James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers, Overall ADP Round 14.2

I got a small hunch that Le’Veon Bell may not find his way on the 2019 Steelers roster. Why not have his elite backup handcuff for 2018 to 2019, James Conner, as an immediate 2019 RB1/RB2 with an elite offensive line, in rounds 14 or 15. This is the textbook definition of a perfect keeper, where the value in 2018 way exceeds expectation.

Yes, you are taking a chance with the unknown, but overall, Conner has looked good in place for Bell so far this preseason. Conner is an instant RB1 in fantasy if Bell goes down in 2018, and there’s no reason Conner is an instant RB1 when/if Bell leaves the Steelers after the 2019 season. Not bad for a hometown kid who had to beat the odds against cancer, and it looks like he can beat it again.

Now its your turn, who are you eyeing or have drafted with keepers in mind?