Hello everyone and welcome to my NASCAR DFS Rankings and Projections for DraftKings.
This Martinsville race is 500-laps, meaning we have +/- 350 “dominator” points (laps led & fastest laps) to chase on DraftKings. THESE POINTS WILL ABSOLUTELY BE NEEDED TO WIN ANYTHING, so we will be trying to capture as many of them as we possibly can. I cannot emphasis this enough in a 500-lap race. There are no higher ceilings than drivers who lead a ton of laps on these short tracks. They rack up points, quick.
Once your dominators/drivers with the highest ceilings are in place, you’ll be looking to round out your lineups with drivers who are:
Starting in a position that, if they can finish within a few spots of that starting position, would be good value.
Starting in a position where we think they have nice positive place differential potential.
Track position will be important here. I tweeted an example out earlier this week:
Also, if you’re into diving into some numbers like I am, here is some more information you might consider when track position could be important.
4-Tire Pit Ranks on all Short Flats & Playoff Races with Tire Wear:
We will also be keeping the playoff picture in mind. Here it is:
You’ll notice I am not interested in playing Logano on DraftKings this week, even though I do like him here. I just think they’ll be looking ahead to the Championship next week. If push came to shove, it’s hard to see him moving anyone out of the way to get in front here, or firmly blocking someone behind him to needs to advance. On the other side of that, I don’t think drivers will feel too bad if they have to move him out of the way, as he’s already locked into the Championship race next weekend.
Beyond that, the drivers on the outside looking in will be driving their asses off to try and advance to the Championship 4. Blaney/Bell/Briscoe will all be going for the win, and this could also increase the chances of seeing a crazy move late in a race (See: Briscoe at Bristol Dirt) that could flip someone’s night upside down, and end someone’s chances of advancing.
This is going to be a exciting race, with much drama should we see cautions fly at the end. I cannot wait to watch…
Xfinity 500 At Martinsville Speedway: DraftKings Rankings & Projections
Remember, these aren’t always “plug & play” projections. If you are using an optimizer, make sure you read what the “Green” “Yellow” Orange” & “Red” colors mean. If you were to plug my projections into an optimizer and run 20 lineups, you’d have Cole Custer 40%. I would not do that. I recommend doing what it says for “Orange” and sprinkle him into some lineups. Even if that ends up being 4/20, you’ve still cut that 40% down in half. You’ll notice that although he projects out high and ends up being an incredible value for his price, he has a floor projection of just 1 DraftKings point.
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Green: My favorite plays. Will try to have the highest exposure on these drivers.
Yellow: Will try to include them where I can, to help diversify and create different lineup combos.
Orange: Low owned and/or high risk/reward type of play. Would sprinkle into some lineups if making 20+.
Red: I am fine fading this driver completely.
GOOD LUCK TODAY GARAGE GUYS. LET’S BAG.