Dead-On Tools 250: NASCAR Xfinity Series Bets And DraftKings DFS Picks

MARTINSVILLE VIRGINIA 8211 APRIL 08 Brandon Jones driver of the 19 MenardsLyons Toyota celebrates in the Ruoff Mortgage victory lane after winning the NASCAR Xfinity Series Call 811 Before You Dig 250 powered by Call 811com at Martinsville Speedway on April 08 2022 in Martinsville Virginia Photo by Jared C TiltonGetty Images

Noah Gragson did it again! His 8th victory of the season as he led 127-laps at Homestead-Miami Raceway. Gragson joins teammate Josh Berry as the two drivers locked into the championship four next week at Phoenix Raceway. 

Before the series champion is decided, the “Paperclip” of Martinsville Speedway is up next to help set the final 2 drivers in that championship race. Gragson and Berry are locked in. Ty Gibbs is 30-points above the cut line, AJ Allmendinger is just 5-points to the good. Justin Allgaier, Austin Hill, Sam Mayer, and Brandon Jones are on the outside going into the weekend, looking for a way to get into the final four. 

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NASCAR Xfinity DraftKings DFS Picks

DFS Top Play: Austin Hill ($9,500)

Austin Hill did not post a qualifying time Friday afternoon after a radiator issue was found before Qualifying. Hill will be chalky, but starting dead last he’s basically the free square on the weekend. 

Great Play: Brandon Jones ($10,100)

Brandon Jones starts on the pole for Saturday’s NASCAR Xfinity race at Martinsville. Jones comes into the weekend 38-points below the cutoff in 8th place in the points. While he’s not technically in a “must-win” he’s pretty close. This team has already proven they showed up this weekend with speed and are here to win. Jones has had a breakout season and won this race in the spring. Look for him to grab the lead at the drop of the green and do everything in his power to not give it up. 

Value Play: Kyle Weatherman ($6,900)

Checking in at a very nice $6,900, Kyle Weatherman is another must-play this weekend. Starting in 38th, Weatherman offers a massive ceiling with a very high floor. Weatherman has finished worse than 22nd in only one of his last 9 races. He impresses every time he gets into this car.

NASCAR Xfinity Best Bets

Austin Hill over Say Mayer (+100)

While Hill will start out back, he was my longshot bet this week on the NASCAR GAMBLING PODCAST at (+1500) his odds post-qualifying has jumped to (+1800) and still deserve a sprinkle. Mayer will start 22nd after a poor qualifying effort on his part. Hill was faster than Mayer in practice and I think it will be easier for the more veteran driver in Hill to work through traffic than the younger Mayer. 

AJ Allmendinger Top-5 (-125)

AJ Allmendinger has been on a tear lately. With 8 top 5 finishes in the last 13 races, and 2 more 6th place finishes. Allmendinger isn’t safe with only a 5-point cushion over the cut line for the final round. The regular season champ needs another good, clean, solid race to make his way to Phoenix and try for his first championship at a NASCAR level. 

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To Win: Brandon Jones (+750)

Jones won this race in the spring, starts on the pole, and is still at +750 to win this race. There is too much value here to pass it up. The favorites, Ty Gibbs (+225) hasn’t won in the past 11 races, and Noah Gragson (+300) may be sent t the rear due to brake line repairs before qualifying. If Gragson dips below +500 I will also circle back and grab some on him. 

To Win Long-shot: Sheldon Creed (+2500)

Creed starts outside of row one right next to Brandon Jones. While he’s routinely had disappointing finish after disappointing finish this year. This is again another value bet, Creed is a great driver, and he’s in great equipment. If he can just put the entire race together for once, 25/1 is a steal.

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