Best NASCAR Matchup to Bet Now: Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway

Wednesday I wrote up my thoughts on two outright bets that were worth considering for Sunday’s Xfinity 500. Outright odds for this weekend are tight so I had planned to include one head to head matchup in that article. Unfortunately, before I published DraftKings took the matchup off the board. This afternoon they brought it back! As I discussed in my Wednesday article, the best predictor of future Martinsville performance is prior Martinsville performance. While the other short flat tracks of Phoenix, Richmond, and New Hampshire offer some predictive insight, Martinsville is unique. So with this in mind here is my favorite NASCAR matchup to bet before practice and qualifying.

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NASCAR MATCHUP ANALYSIS: XFINITY 500

#6 Brad Keselowski -105 Over Tyler Reddick (DraftKings Sportsbook)

The members of the Garage Guys family are big fans and friends of Tyler Reddick, but Reddick is not good at Martinsville. In five Cup starts at Martinsville he has an average finish of 16.8. His best finish was an eighth in the spring 2021 race. This spring he finished 18th, was 19th in incident adjusted speed, and had an average running position (ARP) of 17.8. Reddick’s recent short track performance has been lackluster as well. At New Hampshire he was 14th in incident adjusted speed and he had a terrible race at Richmond in August.

On the other hand Brad Keselowski has always performed well at Martinsville. In his career Keselowski has an average finish of 11.1. Brad’s ARP at Martinsville this spring was right behind Reddick but overall he had a faster car at that race. In fact, but for a late race penalty Keselowski likely had a Top 10 car in the spring. Brad also had a faster car at both Richmond races and had an essentially equal car at New Hampshire.

Keselowski is also showing speed the past few races. There is no doubt that his move to RFK has been a significant step down in quality of equipment, but despite the slow start, RKF has found speed the past few weeks. At Bristol Brad led 109 laps and his teammate won, at Texas Brad won the pole and lead 31 laps, and last week Brad earned a Top 5 and Top Ford honors.

Accounting for the recent improvements that RFK has shown and Brad’s generally superior history at Martinsville, Brad should be the favorite. There isn’t a ton of edge here, so I wouldn’t bet this any shorter than -110 (-108 is available at FanDuel), but at current prices this is worth a bet.

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