Dixie Vodka 400: NASCAR DFS Rankings and Projections For DraftKings

Hello everyone and welcome to my NASCAR DFS Rankings and Projections for DraftKings. Last week, if you entered the optimal lineup from my projections in the $88 Junebug, you came in 3rd for $750. If you made 20 lineups using my projections and entered them into the Chrome Horn, you turned one $4 entry into $350, coming in 2nd place. Please remember that my projections can be used as-is, but also as a guide. They are not always a “plug and play”, set of projections. Feel free to get creative and channel your inner Garage Guy Chase, and play some Gut Boi plays.

STRATEGY

Homestead is another 267-lap race, so like last week, there are over 180 total “dominator” points (laps led & fastest laps) to be had on DraftKings. These points will be needed to take down some tournaments, so we will be trying to capture as many of them as we possibly can. A strong strategy this week would be to make all different kinds of lineups. Lineups with 3 of your favorite dominators and the best of the rest. Lineups with 2 of your favorite dominators and another expensive piece. Lineups hoping for 1 main dominator and drivers with the best ceiling potential with him. Lineups where track position would be the focus instead of forcing in positive place differential. Etc.

Now, I’ll try and do my best to help narrow down the field for you…

Dixie Vodka 400 At Homestead-Miami Speedway: DraftKings Rankings & Projections

CLICK THE LINK BELOW FOR GOOGLE SHEETS VIEW…

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16yLz8dCzt58IgcF0revyUKcpXpOR-7Tv3Y8FBhmz3JU/edit?usp=sharing

Favorites Dominators

Tyler Reddick $10,900 (Starting 7th) – This is a “Reddick Track” if there ever was one. You can rip the high line and Reddick has been excellent here, and everywhere similar. He whipped his RCR car around practice and had the fastest 20-lap average. I thought he would qualify better than 7th, so the fact that he has the nice long run speed means you get a little boost with positive place differential if he works his way to the front. Looking at a 10-race sample of True Performance Ranks for this race, the drivers average finish on those races, fastest lap % in those races, and projected speed for this race, I rank the drivers: Reddick/Chastain/Larson/Byron/Hamlin.

Kyle Larson $10,800 (Starting 5th) – Everything I said about Reddick, above, and know that Larson was right behind him in 20-lap time.

William Byron $9,200 (Starting 1st) – Well you’ve heard the buzz about his car being used to experiment with once he got his 2nd win, and now it is safe to say that those experiments are over. He is fast every week, both in qualifying and race speed. Beyond that, Byron won his last race here starting 31st, and now he gets to hit the gas before anyone else. Byron had the better short run speed of the drivers listed above, so I expect him to get out front early, and sometimes that clean air is all you need to stay ahead. If this team figures out the long run speed during the race, lookout.

Fast Lap % at Comparable Tracks in 2022. Damn, feel like I snubbed Byron here.

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Positive Place Differential Potential

(GREEN – favorites / YELLOW – good / RED – sprinkle)

Ross Chastain $9,600 (Starting 20th)

Joey Logano $9,800 (Starting 17th)

Martin Truex Jr. $9,400 (Starting 12th)

Denny Hamlin $10,600 (Starting 14th)

Austin Dillon $7,200 (Starting 32nd)

Daniel Suarez $8,300 (Starting 23rd)

Noah Gragson $8,100 (Starting 24th)

Kevin Harvick $8,800 (Starting 16th)

Erik Jones $7,900 (Starting 22nd)

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. $6,500 (Starting 27th)

Chase Briscoe $8,500 (Starting 19th)

Aric Almirola $6,700 (Starting 28th)

Austin Cindric $7,700 (Starting 26th)

Landon Cassill $4,800 (Starting 33rd)

Ty Dillon $5,700 (Starting 30th)

Corey LaJoie $5,000 (Starting 31st)

Favorite Tourney Targets

(Would be wise to sprinkle into some tournament lineups)

John Hunter Nemechek $6,100 (Starting 4th) – I tweeted out earlier this week just how stupid this price was. This car is one of the fastest at this type of track all year, and JHN is no slouch when it comes to Homestead. Last time we saw him here in Cup, he whipped the FRM car to a top-20, a car that is nowhere near the level of equipment he has this weekend. JHN has top-10 speed, but should he finish outside the top-10, he can still be valuable in a lineup because of this stupid price. He will be popular, so it’s not necessarily a sneaky play, but it’s hard to pick holes in this outside of an ownership fade.

Justin Haley $6,300 (Starting 15th) – Now here is the potential low-owned pivot if fading JHN, or you can be crazy and play them together. These Kaulig cars have been fast lately, and Kaulig was fast again during Cup practice, and the Xfinity race today. It was nice to see Haley have the long-run speed in practice as well, and if he can stay clean, I expect him to flirt with a top-15 finish here. That would be an excellent day at his price, and low ownership.

^If you’re interesting in pit times potentially gaining someone track position, click this Tweet^

SUM IT UP

When I write this, I always try to limit my player pool to less than half the field, but that was hard today. Perhaps a few thoughts I had when writing this up could help clear things up for you when making some decisions.

  1. I think Harvick and Briscoe make intriguing tournament plays this weekend. Most lineups will probably start out with 1-2 dominators, then expensive positive place differential, meaning this $8K range gets skipped over quite a bit. If either of these drivers beat Logano, Hamlin or Chastain, they become an incredible play for their price. This could help you improve another roster spot, moving up from a “punt” type play to a driver with more of a ceiling.
  2. Drivers with the most top-10 True Performance Ranks in the 10-race sample I’m looking at:
    • 9/10: Hamlin/Reddick
    • 8/10: Byron/Chastain
  3. Drivers starting 20th or beyond with the most amount of True Performance Ranks inside the top-20 (same 10-race sample I’m using):
    • 9/10: Chastain
    • 8/10: Bowman (Gragson driving Sunday)/Suarez/Jones
    • 7/10: Cindric
    • 6/10: AD3/Stenhouse Jr.
    • 5/10: Almirola
  4. Landon Cassill finished 22nd at Darlington, 25th at Darlington 2, 24th at Kansas 2, 22nd at Texas, but… did just finish 32nd at Las Vegas 2. He has finished top-30 in 5/10 Homestead Cup races in his career. He looked great in the Xfinity race today and is my preferred punt play, that nobody will click.
  5. Tough cash slate. Everyone should start with Byron/Chastain, then it becomes a 1v1, Reddick vs Larson. You could jam all 4 in w/2 punts, but if one “dominator” wrecks, you’re probably done. If only playing 1 of Reddick or Larson, AD3 becomes the next obvious cash play.

GOOD LUCK TODAY GARAGE GUYS. LET’S BAG.

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