Contender Boats 300: NASCAR Xfinity Series Bets And DraftKings DFS Picks

FORT WORTH TEXAS 8211 SEPTEMBER 24 Noah Gragson driver of the 9 Bass Pro ShopsTrueTimberBRCC Chevrolet celebrates in victory lane after winning the NASCAR Xfinity Series Andy8217s Frozen Custard 300 at Texas Motor Speedway on September 24 2022 in Fort Worth Texas Photo by Chris GraythenGetty Images

Josh Berry hit the jackpot in Las Vegas and punched his ticket to the final 4 championship round in Phoenix. It was a 1-2-3 finish for JR Motorsports, Noah Gragson, Justin Allgaier, Ty Gibbs, and Trevor Bayne rounded out the top 5.

This week the drivers are headed to South Beach and the Homestead-Miami speedway for the second race of the Round of 8. If one of the 7 remaining playoff drivers snags a win, they automatically lock themselves into the final four alongside Josh Berry. 

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NASCAR Xfinity DraftKings DFS Picks

DFS Top Play: Noah Gragson ($11,300)

My entire weekend will hedge on how well Noah Gragson does. Gragson is the highest-priced driver on the slate and the favorite to win the race, all for good reason. I’ve been singing the praises of Gragson all week on the NASCAR GAMBLING PODCAST. While Gragson has yet to score a win at this track he finished top-5 in 3 starts here and was dominating last year’s race before a late wreck as he ran into a lapped car cost Noah his day. Gragson starts 2nd Saturday and should be fast from the drop of the green flag.

Great Play: Justin Allgaier ($10,700)

Justin Allgaier will start in the 20th position Saturday making him a perfect candidate to score some place-differential points for you. As I mentioned above Justin finished in the 3rd position last week. While this track isn’t the same as Vegas, they are both intermediate-size tracks. Justin has been crushing it all year on in oval races, look for him to climb through the field quickly. 

  Value Play: Anthony Alfredo ($7,200)

“Fast Pasta” will start near the back of the field in the 35th position. Alfredo has finished inside of the top 20 in the last 6 events, with a strong 10th-place run last week in Sin City. Starting near the back makes Alfredo a strong play as there is almost no opportunity for negative points, and huge upside for Alfredo to score those valuable place-differential points and finishing position points. 

NASCAR Xfinity Best Bets

Brandon Jones Over Sheldon Creed (-115)

This is a case of betting on the more consistent driver. Jones has won the head-to-head matchup in 5 of the last 6 races. Creed is an amazing driver and has had some incredible runs this season. However, you cannot rely on him to get you solid finishes and Jones is the opposite of that. Jones has looked revived as of late after agreeing on terms with JRM to replace Noah Gragson in the 9 car next year. Jones has 5 top 10 finishes in those last 6 races. At 12-1 odds to win, Jones is also worth a sprinkle there. 

Justin Allgaier over Josh Berry (-105)

Berry did get the best of Allgaier by just 2 spots last week. Allgaier has been really good on intermediate tracks lately though. Finishes of 3rd at Vegas, 2nd at Kansas, 4th at Darlington, 2nd at Michigan, 1st at Nashville. Allgaier won the head-to-head matchup in all those races except last week at Vegas. Berry should be good and has no pressure as he’s locked into the championship race, I expect Allgaier and the team who are just 15 points to the good right now, to show up bad fast and outpace Berry.

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To Win: Noah Gragson (+150)

I do not take drivers at this low of odds to win a race in NASCAR hardly ever. I do not care what Gragson’s odds are this week, I’m all in. Even though the practice was rain-shorted in Noah’s 16 laps he was the fastest car. He starts P2 to Trevor Bayne and I expect him to lead early and often. This track owes Noah one, and the way he’s been running lately I don’t think he’ll be denied. 

To Win Long-shot: Chandler Smith (+10,000)

Is this the true definition of a long shot? Yes, it is. Like I said I fully expect this to be a Gragson race through and through. NASCAR has had an insane year though and if things get super crazy, Smith is a promising development driver from the truck series who is looking likely to have a shot at the Truck Series championship. If chaos ensues and Smith can avoid it, he’s in a good enough car, and a good enough driver to pull off a crazy upset. 

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