Best Bets Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway: NASCAR Odds, Picks, and Analysis

With just three races left in the 2023 the NASCAR Cup Series is headed to Homestead-Miami Speedway for the Dixie Vodka 400. This will be the 33rd points race of the season and books have continued to show that they are getting sharper. Since books are getting tighter with their NASCAR odds we have to dig deeper to find our best bets this week.

Homestead is a 1.5 mile true oval. This distinguishes it from the other 1.5 mile tracks which are “tri-ovals.” Homestead also features the most aggressive tire wear of any 1.5 mile track. In terms of tire wear Homestead is closer to Darlington and Auto Club than the other 1.5 mile tracks. My expected performance metric does rely on data from the 1.5 mile tracks but the two focus tracks with the most significant weight are Darlington and Auto Club.

Tyler Reddick is the consensus favorite at all books. He is also number one in my metric. Reddick dominated Auto Club. He also recorded 6% of all fastest laps between the two Darlington races. His history at Homestead is exemplary. Reddick has finished fourth and second in his two starts at Homestead in the Cup Series. In the Xfinity Series Reddick has two wins in four starts. Reddick opened at +900 and was quickly bet down to +700. That said, as good as Reddick has been recently and as good as he is here, I just don’t see him winning 10%. Since I don’t see him wining 10% of the time +700 just isn’t a good bet.

The rest of my performance metric is below (driver “rank” for other races is the driver’s incident adjusted speed for that race):

Greg Matherne8217s 2022 Dixie Vodka 400 Expected Performance Metric

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#43 Erik Jones Top 10 +185 | (FanDuel Sportsbook)

When I started looking for the best bets to write up this weekend I was talking to fellow contributor Ryan Stevens about the lack of value on the board. Ryan pointed out that Erik Jones is well into the plus money range for a Top 10. After looking at the underlying data I’m jumping on it with him. Jones is six of 11 (54.5%) finishing inside the Top 10 at the races that my performance metric is drawing on.

In the three races I’m most focused on, he has finished 25th, third, and first. The 25th was due to a wreck at the first Darlington race. In that race he wrecked while running 13th with an Average Running Position of 10.4 which was seventh best.

The implied odds of +185 are just 34.97%. 34.97% is well below his overall Top 10 rate at intermediates this year. Factoring in the speed he has shown at the most relevant tracks +185 gives us plenty of cushion. That said, Jones has been a bit of feast or famine at intermediates. At five of the intermediate races his incident adjusted speed was in the bottom half of the field, so I would only bet this down to +175.

#22 Joey Logano -110 > Ryan Blaney | (DraftKings Sportsbook)

My metric has Logano as the clear favorite over Blaney. In fact, I don’t think it’s even as close as my model does. The biggest weakness Blaney has is with high tire wear tracks. Over his career he has consistently performed below his average at tracks with aggressive tire wear. While Blaney has made some gains this year its not enough to make this an even matchup. As discussed below, Blaney is still well behind Logano this year at the most relevant tracks.

As noted above, Homestead has aggressive tire wear. As one might expect, Blaney has struggled here. He has just one Top 10 finish in seven starts. Logano on the other hand has a win here in 2018. Since 2012 Logano has either started, finished, or done both, inside the Top 10 at every race here.

Turning to this year, at the three most relevant races this year he finished 18th, 17th, and 13th to Logano’s fifth, first, and fourth. Expanding out to all intermediates Logano holds a 9-2 advantage over Blaney. Given the track history and the 2022 head to head results of these two drivers I would be comfortable betting Joey down to -115.


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