South Point 400: NASCAR DFS Rankings and Projections For DraftKings

Hello everyone and welcome to my NASCAR DFS Rankings and Projections for DraftKings. We had all the money with 11 laps to go last week, and it just didn’t work out. I hope this helps put us back into position to crush once again, and that this time, it finishes how it should. Let’s get right to it.

STRATEGY

With 267 laps, there are over 180 total “dominator” points (laps led & fastest laps) to be had on DraftKings. These points will be needed to take down some tournaments, so we will be trying to capture as many of them as we possibly can.

Here is the twist:

Go to this thread on my Twitter for more There8217s a lot of cool info in there

As you can see, these intermediate races have been somewhat unpredictable. This has been due to many issues with the new car, but one major issue has been causing the biggest problem: teams pushing Goodyear’s recommended air pressure limits on these tires. Blaney hit the 30-lap mark in practice and luckily, felt something, went to the pits, and sure enough a tire was down. The broadcast team made no effort in hiding this, and even went as far as saying that all these drivers will be scared once they run more than 30 consecutive laps on these tires. We have seen time and time again; the fastest cars blow a tire while running out front and all the sudden the race looks completely different. Coincidentally, with Reddick on the pole, we specifically saw this happen to him while he was in the lead a few months ago.

Beyond that – throw in a phantom, or questionable, caution or two, and the leaderboard can get shaken up quickly at the end of a race as well. We saw this in the Xfinity race Saturday and have been seeing it far too often recently in the Cup Series.

I highly recommend you build some lineups following the speed, data, and basically everything we have pumped out to you this week. The rest of your lineups need to be made with more of a contrarian approach, or a mix of both. We need to say, “What if this crazy shit continues to happen?” I mean, I only showed a 6-race sample of how bad the average green flag runs have been. There are plenty more examples, and the sample size is no longer small. This strategy should help us cover all bases when building lineups. My goal is to get you the right player pool to help get you to the top.

South Point 400 At Las Vegas: DraftKings Rankings & Projections

CLICK THE LINK BELOW FOR GOOGLE SHEETS VIEW…

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j94Vx1vKg28JdF5drbNe7cnkoh1rEoo0cuKtkADEVV8/edit?usp=sharing

Favorites

Ross Chastain $9,900 (Starting 11th) – Chastain didn’t have the qualifying lap that other fast cars did, but I’m OK with that. In the 6-race sample I am looking at (Vegas/Kansas 1&2/Charlotte/Michigan/Texas), he has a fast lap % of 6.33%, behind only a few the Toyota’s, who did not show up as fast as he did this weekend. Greg Matherne and I posted our pre-practice/qualifying ranks earlier this week, and the consensus was Chastain at #1. He was crazy-fast in practice and hasn’t qualified well all year. He offers some nice positive place differential, with the potential to get to the front of the field. We have the #1 at #1, make sure you click that name.

Tyler Reddick $10,100 (Starting 1st) – Reddick wasn’t great in practice, but wow did this RCR team have this car ready to qualify. His lap was insane, and he has been fast on this track type all year. Starting on the pole, you’d love to just lock him in that clean air and let it ride, but you know we cannot do that. In the 6-race sample I used (Vegas/Kansas 1&2/Charlotte/Michigan/Texas), Reddick’s only T5 finish is the race he won. So, we know the ceiling is there, but do we know they haven’t messed with the tire pressure to where it won’t last in a longer run? Or some other bad luck that has struck Reddick this year striking again? Reddick have proven he can win, but starting 1st, he is the ultimate high risk/reward play on the board.

William Byron $9,700 (Starting 3rd) – I’ll list Byron ahead of Blaney here, as Byron should get to start behind Reddick, who will be hitting the gas first in the preferred line at the start. While Blaney appeared faster in practice, Byron still went out and beat him in qualifying. Byron has also shown the ability to win races this year, where Blaney has not. In my True Performance Rankings on the tracks that I’m looking at for this week, Byron has had a spike week where I thought he had a winning car, where I never felt that way about Blaney. I do not think you should be a full fade on Blaney (more on that later), but I do think Byron at a low ownership percentage has tournament winning upside should he find his way to the lead.

Christopher Bell $10,700 (Starting 7th) – This is an update from the speed we have seen this year, and his improvements from practice to qualifying. Please see the chart below, which would have landed you on Berry yesterday as well. Even with the bullshit, we will follow the speed.

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Positive Place Differential Potential

(GREEN – favorites / YELLOW – good / RED – sprinkle)

Denny Hamlin $11,100 (Starting 31st)

Martin Truex Jr. $9,100 (Starting 27th)

Kyle Larson $10,300 (Starting 14th)

Kyle Busch $9,300 (Starting 18th)

Chase Elliott $10,700 (Starting 20th)

Justin Haley $5,800 (Starting 28th)

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. $6,000 (Starting 29th)

Ty Dillon $5,600 (Starting 33rd)

Erik Jones $7,100 (Starting 22nd)

Aric Almirola $6,700 (Starting 23rd)

Brad Keselowski $6,900 (Starting 25th)

Corey LaJoie $4,900 (Starting 30th)

Todd Gilliland $5,200 (Starting 35th)

Feeling Left Out

(Could be talked into these… make a case for it!)

Ryan Blaney $9,500 (Starting 4th)

Joey Logano $8,900 (Starting 5th)

Bubba Wallace $8,700 (Starting 9th)

Noah Gragson $7,300 (Starting 17th)

SUM IT UP

I try to limit this article and player pool to less than half the field. If I am not talked into playing anyone in the “Feeling Left Out” portion of the article, I’m at 16 drivers I want to play on DraftKings. I’ll probably be making 20 lineups. I would include my “Feeling Left Out” drivers in your pool if you’re playing 150-max, MME tournaments.

My recommendation is to build all different types of lineups. As many combos as you can comfortably fit from the “Favorites”, then as many of the top plays in the “Positive Place Differential Potential”. With how things have been going at these tracks this season, and the caliber of some of these drivers starting further back, feel free to completely leave out the “Favorites” in a few lineups.

GOOD LUCK TODAY GARAGE GUYS. LET’S BAG.

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