October 6th, 2022
Thank you all for checking out my Early NASCAR Ranks and Preview for the Bank of America Roval 400! This week in the NASCAR Playoffs, we have the final race in the Round of 12 at Charlotte Motor Speedway’s Roval Road Course. I wanted to share what’s going on inside my mind earlier in the week before we get to practice and qualifying. I post these ranks and information on Twitter each week, but I understand many do not have Twitter, or care to look on there, so I thought this would be the best way for everyone to take-a-look. I hope you all enjoy, and if any piece of this information helps you to be successful this week, that’s the goal.
Current Playoff Standings:
This is important, as there will be some differing strategies between these drivers. We need to keep this in mind when betting, and for DraftKings DFS lineups on Sunday. While we can only speculate on most, we do know that Elliott is locked into the next round, and he should be on a strategy that revolves around going for the win. Looking at the points, I would imagine Christopher Bell would be on this same path as well. For the rest of the drivers, I would imagine they stay on the track and race for stage points, assuming the race plays out to where this would make sense for them. This seems to be the “safer” route to take, as opposed to sacrificing stage points for a winning strategy, only to have something go very wrong at the end, finish near the back and miss the next round of the playoffs because of it. Again, we can only speculate on these things, but when you look at the current standings, it seems to make the most sense that this is what will happen, assuming the race plays out in semi-normal fashion.
The first two things I post every week are how these drivers have performed in the current season at the type of track they will be racing on. If you don’t know by now, I have created something I call, “True Performance Ranks”. They are a mix of many different factors that I think are important during a race, with a boost on speed, and I rank them accordingly.
2022 Road Course True Performance Ranks:
Next, I like to look at how each driver has qualified in the current season at the type of track they will be racing on. These are famous for leading us to 2nd place pole bets, although the tide has been turning on that recently.
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2022 Qualifying Results on Road Courses:
Here’s an example of what’s going on in my mind when I see things like this:
Man, Group A is very tough. In a race where track position is so important, if a driver I like here cannot make it to the final round, he’ll be starting outside the top-10. Track position is important in most races, but on a road course, there are only so many places you can pass. Also, if you start outside the top-10 and aren’t near the front contending for the lead, perhaps this further entices you to stay out and race for those stage points while the leaders who are going for the win, pit. Chastain comes to mind here, as he has only made the final round once in five tries at the road courses this season.
My Pre-Practice/Qualifying Ranks:
If you used these ranks last week, they had Blaney, Elliott, Jones, 1-2-3, so you would have had 3 drivers fighting for the win at the end. Let’s hope for the same on Sunday!
Here are a few initial thoughts I had after ranking everything out:
With everything you’ve seen, I have come up with a few bets, and a few thoughts about drivers for DFS that I want to keep an eye on during practice and qualifying.
My Bets (so far):
Elliott 7/1 – No longer offered anywhere but got it early on DraftKings this week. I still think 5/1 is OK. This is a clean sweep #1 in everything I’m looking at. He also has a great pit crew that should be able to keep his track position for him.
Pole Sitter to Win the Race 7/1 – This is still available on DraftKings, and I would highly recommend betting this. Elliott and Reddick have won the last 3 poles on road courses and are 5/1 and 6/1 to win the race. Should they win another pole, you have a better number on them. If you truly believe in Elliott and are pissed you missed the 7.5/1 and 7/1 earlier this week, this could be your chance to grab it.
Cindric -115 over Briscoe – This one wasn’t close to me in anything I looked at, except for qualifying. Even with the qualifying being so close all year, Cindric has smoked Briscoe on road courses. If you don’t believe in stats, you could just look at the odds. Cindric has better odds to win, T3, T5, T10, you name it. Could something go wrong, and Briscoe win this matchup? Sure. I am just going to continue to implement my hard work and hope that it continues to play out as it has.
Buescher T10 +110 – This number is also no longer available, but I would still bet it at -110. If you look at Buescher’s average finish vs. the field at Road Courses since ’19, only Elliott, Larson, and Hamlin are better. This great road course season for Buescher does not appear to be a fluke. He qualifies well on road courses, is fast, and has no reason to race for points.
McDowell T10 +125 – Again, this number is not available anymore, but I do not mind him at even money. My thoughts are similar-to what I wrote about Buescher, but McDowell has been improved at road courses compared to where he’s historically been. NextGen has treated him well, perhaps better than any driver this season. Only Elliott and Cindric have a better average finish at road courses this season.
Finally, a few thoughts I have after looking at the DraftKings pricing for Sunday’s DFS contests:
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If any of you have any questions or want to talk racing, feel free to hit me up in the FREE Garage Guys Discord. Thank you all for taking the time to read this and remember to check back this weekend for my DraftKings Projections.