The NASCAR Xfinity Series race at Talladega was very non-Talladega-like. Every single Xfinity Series entry was still running at the end of the race. The chaos we predicted didn’t pan out as planned. AJ Allmendinger was victorious after so many times of leading at the white flag and not being able to win on a superspeedway. It was announced on Tuesday AJ will move back to the Cup Series full-time in 2023 driving the same #16 car for Kaulig Racing. Chandler Smith moves up from the truck series to replace Allmendinger.
The teams head back to the Charlotte, North Carolina area to take on the Roval. The half-road course half oval that uses both the Charlotte Motor Speedway Oval and the road course that winds through the infield. AJ Allmendinger has won this race the past three years in a row. This is a cut-off race for the round of eight. Allmendinger and Noah Gragson are already locked into the next round.
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NASCAR Xfinity DraftKings DFS Picks
DFS Top Play: AJ Allmendinger ($11,000)
As I mentioned above, AJ has won this race three years in a row, and the odds reflect that as such. Allmendinger is (+200) to win this race. We don’t see odds quite this low in NASCAR very often. The odds do show how good AJ is here though, he will be a very chalky play, probably the most rostered on the board for good reason, Allmendinger has won this race 3 times in a row! Add that to 3 road course wins this season and a runner-up finish at Watkins Glen to Cup champion Kyle Larson. Allmendinger is too good not to play here.
Great Play: Sam Mayer ($10,000)
Mayer has had his ups and downs this year, but road courses have been a strength for this 19-year-old kid from Wisconsin. Mayer scored a 5th place finish at COTA, 7th at Indy Road course and 6th at Watkins Glen a few weeks ago. His price tag is hefty coming off a strong second place finish at Talladega, and that should keep his roster percentage low. Exactly what we are hoping for, don’t be surprised if Mayer is in the running to win this race.
Value Play: Andy Lally ($7,000)
Lally is a road course ringer. In 4 starts this season (all on road courses), Lally is averaging 28.9 DraftKings points per race and hasn’t finished worse than 25th in any of those races. That’s what you are looking for as you start to dip down in price range, at Watkins Glen Lally started 33rd and finished 19th scoring a solid 38-points on the day.
NASCAR Xfinity Best Bets
Josh Berry Over Daniel Hemric (+100)
Fading Daniel Hemric has been one of my favorite things to do in the Xfinity Series lately. While he was able to score a 6th place finish in the rain at Portland, in the other 4 road courses this season Hemric hasn’t topped 22nd place. Josh Berry on the other hand has 2 top 5s and 3 top 10s on road courses this season and has gotten the better finish over Hemric 4 of 5 times. It’s also at plus money? I couldn’t sign up for this bet fast enough.
AJ Allmendinger over Ty Gibbs (-135)
Betting against Ty Gibbs is a scary proposition. However, when it comes to AJ Allmendinger on the ROVAL, and road courses, in general, this year it makes you feel a lot better about it. I talked about AJ above, three wins in a row in this race, three road course wins, and a second place at Watkins Glen. I’m just playing the odds here and expecting Dinger to do it again.
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To Win: AJ Allmendinger (+200)
I struggled with this bet. +200 in NASCAR is a pretty gross bet. However, all signs point toward this being a very chalky weekend. I’m all in on Chase Elliott Sunday, and I’m going to go in on AJ Saturday. The odds are 2/1 for a reason, he’s won this race 3 times in a row, he’s locked into the next round with nothing to worry about, and he doesn’t need to race for points or stage wins. He’s just there to “trophy hunt” as they say at Kaulig Racing. So, hold your nose, lay down a few units on Allmendinger, and count your winnings Saturday.
To Win Long-shot: Sam Mayer (+1500)
If you are going all in on AJ, it’s smart to throw a little on a few longer-shot drivers as a little insurance policy. If you’ve listed to the NASCAR Gambling Podcast or read this article before you know I like my long-shot bets. I gave out Austin Hill (+700) and James Davison (+2000) on that podcast this week. I’m going to sprinkle a little on those 2 and add Sam Mayer. I’ve made the case for Sam above, he’s in elite equipment at JRM and is getting close to that first checkered flag.