After the exciting race at Darlington two weeks ago, the Kansas race was quite the letdown, for the racing part of it anyways. If you read this article last week Noah Gragson pulled off the 4/1 win for us so that part of it was exciting at least! Jeremy Clements’ appeal was heard on Tuesday, if you recall he won the race a few weeks ago at Daytona, and after the engine was sent to the R&D center and failed he was allowed to keep the win but it was not eligible for the playoffs. Clements and his family-owned Jeremy Clements Racing team won that appeal and that win is now allowed to count towards playoff contention and does that shake things up!
The series is in Bristol, Tennessee this week for the final race of the regular season. After Clements’s win was reinstated towards playoff eligibility, that kicked Ryan Sieg out by 19-points behind Landon Cassill, and Sheldon Creed 32-points out. These are the only two who can still get in via points, and of course, a new winner could upset the playoff picture as well. Going into Bristol, AJ Almendinger has a 38-point lead over Ty Gibbs and 55-points over Justin Allgaier. The regular season champion will walk out of Bristol with both the big trophy and those ever-valuable 15-bonus points. Don’t forget this race is on Friday night! 7:30 PM E.T, on USA Network.
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NASCAR Xfinity Best Bets: Food City 300
Riley Herbst Over Daniel Hemric (-110)
This is one of my favorite bets on the board this weekend. On the NASCAR Gambling Podcast, we talk all the time about fading Hemric. Last year’s champion moved to Kaliug Racing from Joe Gibbs Racing and the results haven’t been here. Hemric’s best finish in the last 7 races is an 8th at Michigan. In 15 of the 25 races so far in 2022 Herbst has gotten the best of Hemric. Herbst is a guy you can’t rely on to be battling for the wins, a solid day and decent finish seem to come easy for him, and in this kind of head-to-head, that’s what you need.
AJ Allmendinger Top-5 (+100)
Is anyone more consistent in the Xfinity Series than AJ Allmendinger? It doesn’t appear so. Allmendinger, who is close to wrapping up his second straight regular season championship, has a top-5 finish in 5 of the last 7 races, and in 12 races in 2022. He doesn’t have the most wins but is leading the points race due to this consistency. Allmendinger won this race last year as they wrecked coming to the line to win that title, it shouldn’t take anything that dramatic this year, but Allmendinger should be able to run a clean solid race and snag a top-5 and at + odds, that’s even sweeter.
To Win: Justin Allgaier (+300)
Allgaier has had himself a career season in 2022. With 3 wins to his name and having led 481-laps on the season and coming off a second-place finish at Kansas. The odds are very top-loaded this week with Allgaier, Gragson, and Ty Gibbs all at 3/1 before a drop-off to Josh Berry (8/1) and Allmendinger (10/1). Pick your poison of the favorites and ride with them, and for me, that is Justin. 9 top-5s in his career at Bristol Allgaier knows his way around this track.
To Win Long-shot: AJ Allmendinger (+1000)
While this isn’t as long of a shot as I usually have in this section, I’m here to give you winners and while Sheldon Creed is appealing (+2000) farther down the board nothing else is to me at this track this weekend. I think this race will be dominated by the “Big-3” and that’s why their odds are all so short. However, I talked above about AJ winning here last year and his consistency this season. Those two things make him well worth it at 10/1 for a longer-shot play to win this race.
NASCAR Xfinity DraftKings DFS Picks: Food City 300
DFS Top Play: Noah Gragson ($11,200)
Noah is a great driver in a great car, who constantly gets it done. Last week was of course rain-shortened but Noah led 20-laps, at Darlington he led 82-laps en route to a win. Noah will get you fast laps and laps led, and most of the time a great finish. He’s one of these co-favorites to win this weekend for a reason.
Great Play: Justin Allgaier ($11,000)
As I mentioned above, this week will most likely be dominated by a select few drivers. Which means I’m going heavy on the big names. Of course, depending on starting positions for all things as qualifying is Friday the same as the race, I plan on trying to play both Gragson and Allgaier. It’s dangerous business not taking Gibbs and I would suggest playing different lineups with different combinations of these three drivers. I’m all in on Justin again this week and he can do the same as Noah when it comes to laps led and fast laps.
Value Play: Kyle Weatherman ($6,200)
After playing the two higher-priced guys you’ll be left with an average of $6,950 for your remaining 4-spots, this is probably a week to take a “punt” option like David Starr, but one driver I am targeting is Kyle Weatherman. When Weatherman has been in this #34 car. It’s like it’s a completely different car than when Jesse Iwuji is in it. Weatherman has had some great runs including two 16th place finishes in his last three races and has been scoring solid points most weeks.
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