The chaos of Daytona has subsided, and the extremely crazy long-shot winner happened in Jeremy Clements. Clements’s car passed the initial post-race inspection, but the engine failed inspection at the NASCAR research and development center a few days later. Per NASCAR rules Clements keeps the win, however it will not count towards playoff eligibility. With just three races left in the regular season for the Xfinity Series, this moves Ryan Sieg back into the playoffs with a 43-point advantage on Sheldon Creed.
This week they head to the “track too tough to tame” or the “lady in black” Darlington Raceway. The track is notorious for leaving the “Darlington Stripe” along the right side of almost every car in the race. The 1.366-mile oval is shaped like an egg. Legend has it the owner of the land wouldn’t move his minnow pond, so instead of the corners being the same size, turns 1-2 are wider than turns 3-4 making it incredibly difficult for both the teams to set the cars up and the drivers to maneuver the cars around this track.
A note: Denny Hamlin was originally on the entry list in the #18 Joe Gibbs Racing car, but after still feeling some effects from a crash at Daytona, Hamlin has withdrawn and Christopher Bell will pilot the 18 ride.
NASCAR Xfinity Best Bets
Justin Allgaier Top-5 (-140)
Earlier this season Justin Allgaier broke his 34-race winless streak here at Darlington. Allgaier has been very good at this track, with a win this spring, a win in May of 2018, and finishes of 6th or better in four of the last five races here. With Denny Hamlin out of the race, I feel even better about this bet. In addition to being good at Darlington, Allgaier has been one of the best on oval tracks this year in the Xfinity Series. With 3 wins this season all at oval tracks look for Justin to shine again this weekend.
Sam Mayer Over John Hunter Nemechek (-125)
I talked about this last week in this article, and talk about it every chance I can on the NASCAR GAMBLING PODCAST. When John Hunter Nemechek is in this #26 car, I love to fade him! Now I will concede he did finish 4th here in this car in the spring, but since then his finishes in this car are 18th, 19th, and 35th. If John was in the #18 Gibbs car this is a different conversation. This Sam Hunt Racing equipment just isn’t on the level of the JRM cars. Mayer finished 5th here in the spring and has 3 top-7 finishes in the last 5 races.
To Win: Justin Allgaier (+800)
I made the case for Allmendinger above, I loved Hamlin early in the week but his Withdrawal from the race, sent my Allgaier to win shares rocketing. Reigning Cup champion Kyle Larson is in this race (+300) and Christopher Bell (+350) should be tough opponents. Their low odds just don’t give me the value I’m looking for and Justin does that for me, he can outduel these Cup drivers on this given Saturday.
To Win Long-shot: Brandon Jones (+3000)
Jones is a veteran of the Xfinity Series, this track leans much more towards the veteran style of racer. Jones is 30/1 for a reason, nobody expects him to be the best car out there on Saturday. That being said Jones did win the fall race here in 2020, and finished 3rd in may of 2021. Jones is a good enough driver, in a great car, who raises his head every once in a while and just flat impresses. That, or some type of chaos like we’ve seen across racing all year long happens, and Jones could find himself in victory lane.
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NASCAR Xfinity DFS Picks For DraftKings
DFS Top Play: Kyle Larson ($11,500)
The highest-priced driver on the slate to nobody’s surprise. Kyle Larson is a dominant driver, stepping down to the Xfinity Series. He should be very good in this race, lead a lot of laps, and score a lot of points. He will be a very popular play no matter where he starts though, so in bigger contests it might be wise to have some lineups without him.
Great Play: Justin Allgaier ($10,200 )
See above. Seriously though I’ve laid out his case betting-wise, and in a lot of areas, betting and fantasy correlate. That’s no different here, if we expect Allgaier to finish top-3 and have a chance to win this race, he’s going to be valuable in fantasy as well.
Value Play: Ty Dillon ($7,500)
Ty Dillion won’t be on many people’s radars and for good reason probably. He makes you feel blah. However, we’ve seen some really good runs by Anthony Alfredo in these Our Motorsports cars here lately. Dillion has two Xfinity starts this year, both were for Big Machine Racing, but Dillion did well in both finishing 20th at Indy Road course scoring 30.0 Draftkings points, and 8th at Richmond scoring 45.0 that day. If the chalk hits up top with Kyle Larson, a driver like Dillion could make all the difference.