Coke Zero Sugar 400: Early NASCAR Odds, Picks, and Analysis

The end of the regular season is upon us, and the NASCAR odds for the Coke Zero Sugar 400 At Daytona are here. On Sunday Kyle Larson caused chaos on the last restart to push Chase Elliott out of the way. Larson then held off a desperate Michael McDowell to win his second race of the year.

The win by Larson ensures that the 15 current winners will all be in the playoffs and makes the math for the last spot relatively easy. If you are anyone but Martin Truex Jr or Ryan Blaney, you have to win. For Truex or Blaney a win gets them in, but they can also get in on points, Truex is 25 points behind Blaney at the moment, so he has work to do, but he can point his way in.

Daytona is a return to pack/draft racing. Daytona is always unpredictable one or more “big ones” regularly taking out large chunks of the field. On average just over half of the field will be on the lead lap when the checkered flag flies.

So what does the chaos mean? Well, it means I’m not likely to be interested in favorites, for the most part, there is simply too much chaos to confidently bet on a driver in the +1000 or +1200 range, where drivers like Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney currently sit. It also means that there is even more value on long shots than usual. So, with that said, let’s turn to my early bets.

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Early NASCAR Odds and Best Bets: Coke Zero Sugar 400

#45 Ty Gibbs Top Toyota +1100 | (DraftKings Sportsbook)

Only two books that I have access to have top manufacture driver odds posted right now. DraftKings and Caesars Sportsbook are different when it comes to Ty Gibbs. As noted above, DraftKings has Gibbs at +1100, while Caesars has him at a much shorter +700. There are only six Toyota’s in the field, so getting any one of them at +1100 for at a track with as much chaos as Daytona feels like a gift.

While we don’t have a ton of data on him, it’s not like Ty is a poor performer at drafting tracks either. He won the first Xfinity race at the New Atlanta track in March and led laps in the second race before wrecking out. He also led laps last year at Daytona and this year at Talladega before wrecks got to him. Wrecks at drafting tracks are essentially random, so I’m focused on the ability he has shown to race up front when making this bet. +1100 is simply too long when he only has six drivers to beat.

I have one unit on this and I would bet it down to +1000.

#34 Michael McDowell +4000 | (DraftKings, BetRivers, Barstool, Caesars, and PointsBet Sportsbooks)

McDowell is a very talented drafting racer. Look no further than his win last year at the Daytona 500. So there is never any question about whether he can compete at a drafting track. He is also quietly putting together the best year of his career across all tracks. In over 400 races McDowell has 27 top 10 finishes, 10 of those have come in his 25 starts so far this year. These races include a seventh at the Daytona 500 and an either earlier this year at Talladega. The +4000 odds imply that McDowell wins this race just 2.44% of the time. Those odds are simply too long for a talented drafting driver who must win if he wants to make the playoffs.

I have .35u on this, I would bet it down to +3500.

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