Last week we pulled off the Garage Fam article sweep with our NASCAR Xfinity Series bets! The Xfinity Series race featured chaos, on chaos, on chaos. Drivers who had the better-looking cars early in the race stumbled into problems. The third and fourth place cars were disqualified post-race after failing inspection.
Justin Allgaier survived the day and grabbed his third win of the season, inching him closer to championship leader AJ Allmendinger. Allgaier is just 16 points behind now, and with just five races remaining in the regular season for this Xfinity field, 15 bonus points and a nice big trophy await the regular season champion.
The Xfinity Series now heads to Pocono to face “The Tricky Triangle.” Located in the Pocono Mountains in Long Pond, Pennsylvania, the track is different from any other on the schedule because of its triangular shape. It boasts three different shaped and banked turns, all modeled after other racetracks. Only one driver in the field has won here in the Xfinity Series: Cole Custer. Custer, now a full-time Cup Series driver, is stepping back into an Xfinity car this weekend. Custer is joined by fellow Cup star Ricky Stenhouse Jr. on the entry list.
NASCAR Xfinity Series Best Bets:
Noah Gragson over Ricky Stenhouse Jr (-155)
Originally Tyler Reddick had been scheduled to race the #48 Big Machine Racing car this weekend. However, after last week’s shocking announcement that he would be leaving Richard Childress Racing and the Chevrolet camp upon the end of his contract after the 2023 season, Reddick is no longer in this ride this week. Considering that, Stenhouse being thrown in the car on shorter notice with probably not as much help from RCR regarding racecar prep leads me to believe it just won’t be a super competitive car. On the other hand, Gragson is competitive every week and drives for the best team in the garage this season.
Justin Allgaier Top 5 (-140)
If it’s not broken, don’t fix it. Allgaier is on a tear right now when it comes to oval tracks as he picked up his third win of the season last week at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. That made it back-to-back oval track wins after winning the week prior in Nashville. Taking out the higher variance road courses and superspeedways, Allgaier has finished in the Top 5 in five of the last six races. He also finished third here last year. We talk all the time on the NASCAR GAMBLING PODCAST about riding the momentum, so keep riding that here!
To Win: Justin Allgaier (+600)
To be honest with you, I didn’t want to pick Justin Allgaier again this week. I like to change things up, and I could make a case for Gibbs, Custer, and maybe a few others. However, everything keeps bringing me back to Justin again this week. He’s been on fire, and the regular season title is within reach. He’s also paid off for us multiple times this year. 6/1 odds are pretty good for the guy who’s won the last two oval races.
To Win Long-shot: Sammy Smith (+2000)
There is way too much value at 20/1 on a Joe Gibbs Racing car. Smith will be in the No. 18 Gibbs entry that finished sixth here last year with Daniel Hemric. If you don’t know 18-year-old Sammy Smith, get used to the name. Smith is the next big Toyota Racing Development driver coming up through the ranks. Smith leads the ARCA Menards Series East standings and has led around 50% of the laps this season. While Smith is young, we’ve seen it before in teammate Ty Gibbs where these young guns with a load of talent can win right away. And at 20/1, sign me up for that.
NASCAR Xfinity DraftKings DFS Picks:
DFS Top Play: Justin Allgaier ($10,500)
All aboard the Justin Allgaier express. He’s paid off in DFS time and time again and yet isn’t usually a popular pick. With so many other “sexy” names to grab in the higher tiers, he slips past most. Allgaier consistently leads laps, records fast laps, and gets solid finishes along with achieving solid place-differential. With practice and qualifying on the same day as race day, make sure you pay attention to those. But no matter where he starts, I think Justin is a great play.
Great Play: Josh Berry ($9,000)
Berry is another one who may get overlooked but shouldn’t. He provides great scores most weeks. A wreck caught him last week and caused a bad score. If you were burned, forget about it and play him again. Berry is in elite equipment and offers a very high ceiling. In four of the last six races, he’s finished inside the Top 4. Berry finished 9th here last year while driving for Jordan Anderson Racing: a much less funded team than the JRM car he’s driving this time around.
Solid Play: Sammy Smith ($8,200)
I made my case above for why to bet on him. And again, in DFS, this play screams value. The public casual players don’t know about Smith yet. Now is your chance to take advantage of that. Joe Gibbs Racing has five wins on the season, and this No. 18 car has done well with various drivers including a 2nd place for Trevor Bayne last week at New Hampshire.
Value Play: Kyle Sieg ($6,200)
Sieg has just run part-time this season for the family-owned team, but he’s impressed when he has run. In eight of his eleven starts this season Sieg has finished Top 25. When you get down to guys in this range, that’s all you need. Kyle’s brother and teammate Ryan is currently inside of the playoffs and having a great season which shows you what those cars are capable of doing.