Hello there everyone! I hope you are having a great week and are ready to exchange some NASCAR Betting Picks for bags as NASCAR heads to Road America for our third road course race of the year, The Kwik Trip 250! For those of you who are not in the Garage Guys Discord, I’d like to offer a brief introduction.
My name is Greg Matherne. I’m an attorney by day who (since the spread of legalized gambling) has been putting my mind to work taking down books with value-based NASCAR bets by night. So with that brief intro out of the way, let’s dig into Road America.
When it comes to road courses, it should surprise no one that prior performance is a strong predictor of future performance. What will surprise many is that a driver’s recent non-drafting speed can matter just as much. To handicap this race I’m looking at road course performance and blending that with recent incident-free green flag speed.
When analyzing road courses, I’m placing an emphasis on those most similar to Road America. Mostly tracks like COTA and Watkins Glen. Putting this all together, I get a predicted performance metric that lets me rank the drivers against one another.
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NASCAR Betting Picks: Kwik Trip 250 At Road America
#8 Tyler Reddick | +2500 To Win (Caesars Sportsbook)
At first glance, one driver jumped out comparing my expected performance metric to odds. I have Tyler Reddick as a Top 5 driver, but he is behind 11 other drivers on Caesars (and tied with 2 more). Caesars is offering quite long odds of +2500.
Digging into the data behind my rankings this number makes even less sense. Reddick was 3rd in overall green flag speed this year at COTA. He was first in green-flag speed at Road America in 2021.
He was also a Top 6 driver in speed during the first stage at Sonoma before things fell apart. His speed has leveled off some the past two weeks, but before that, he was eighth in green-flag speed at Gateway and was second at both Charlotte and Kansas (before his incident).
It’s also worth noting that at this point, Reddick’s only realistic way into the playoffs is with a win. So he won’t be points racing and will be able to adopt an optimal pit strategy. 25-1 is just too long for a guy who should have a win right now and I’ve become a broken record saying that Reddick’s win is coming.
I suspect Reddick’s odds will shorten considerably after practice and qualifying, so I’m placing half a unit on Reddick now while I can still get this great price. Quite a few other books have Reddick at +2200, which is decent if that is the only option available to you, but I wouldn’t go under that number.
#11 Denny Hamlin | +1500 To WIn (Caesars Sportsbook)
Another driver who I think presents value is Denny Hamlin at +1500 on Caesars Sportsbook. I’ve got Denny as a solid Top 5 driver here, but his odds don’t reflect that. The +1500 odds at Caesars require him to win just 6.25% of the time to break even.
Denny had Top 10 speed this year at COTA, and also had Top 10 speed at both Watkins Glen and Road America in 2021. Recently (with the exception of Sonoma) he has had Top 10 speed in every race dating back to Darlington. Like Reddick, I suspect Denny’s odds are only getting shorter, so I want to lock my .8 unit bet on him now.
#1 Ross Chastain | Top Three +250 (Barstool Sportsbook)
Ca$htrain is just +250 for a Top 3 at Barstool Sportsbook, but I think he should be even shorter (let’s say somewhere around +180-200). At +250 odds, Ross just needs to finish Top 3 only 29% of the time for this to be a profitable bet. Ross has been the 2nd fastest car in the NASCAR Cup Series dating back to Darlington (based on my incident-adjusted green flag speed).
He won earlier this year at COTA and had the best green flag speed at that race. He also finished third at Road America last year. It seems like Chastain comes out with a rocket ship every week as of late, so bet against him at your own peril (Odds Note: I’d bet this down to +230).
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