Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. It’s road course season, and it starts with the Camping World Truck Series XPEL 225 at Circuit of the America’s (COTA). It’s time to dive into my NASCAR best bets as we, once again, get to #WakeUpWithTrucks.
I do miss #TruckNightInAmerica, but starting your weekend off with the NASCAR Trucks should warrant no complaints. COTA is a super cool place, and I’m someone who loves road course racing. Seeing trucks on road courses is somewhat of a rare thing as well, so we’re in for a treat today.
Todd Gilliland won this rain-filled race last year and was as high as 20-1 to get the trophy. Of course, yours truly wrote him up as an 18-1 dog and he cashed out for me. This year oughta be much different; we will have great weather and a few noticeable drivers shaking things up.
And ‘noticeable‘ is quite the understatement when we’re talking about Kyle Busch. KFB enters back into the series driving the #51 for his own team, and is -140 to win on DraftKings Sportsbook- he doesn’t get much cheaper than that across the sportsbooks. Alex Bowman is also racing and boasted some competive speed in his #7 Spire truck, an entry that is only making its 2nd ever start.
Ultimately, I think Kyle Busch will win this race. I will not bet on him though. I will find other ways as -140 for a NASCAR winner is never worth it. Ever. The betting landscape becomes vastly complicated with KFB’s unwanted entry, so it’s time to figure out what bets to look at in order to bring the bags home today.
Let’s get right into it.
NASCAR Trucks Best Bets
Sheldon Creed: To Win +1200 (Barstool Sportsbook), Top 3 +210, Top 5 +110 (BetMGM)
People were concerned about Sheldon’s equipment, but considering what Kaz Grala has done in the Young’s Motorsports #02, which is a teammate to Sheldon, I am not concerned. Creed was lightning-fast in practice and qualifying as he snagged the pole, but he will have to start at the rear for changing a fuel pump post-qualifying (once again, I’m not worried).
Sheldon “Truck God I” Creed has returned to reclaim his glory (actually just getting some extra track time and having fun) in the series where he was so dominant. His road course stats are exceptional: in 5 starts at road courses since 2019, his finishes are: 4th, 1st, 2nd, 5th, and 3rd.
BetMGM and Barstool are doing us a huge favor as books like DraftKings are offering Creed at +650 and others around +700. I’d probably sprinkle units on him to win and go up from there on Top 3 and Top 5. I think Creed will be in the mix.
Ben Rhodes: Top 3 +450, Top 5 +260 (BetMGM)
BetMGM is gonna be where to find all the enhanced value from what I’ve seen. You can also grab Rhodes at +2000 to win on their book. Rhodes is a solid road racer as he scored 2 Top 10’s in 3 starts in 2021, including his win at the Daytona Road Course.
I like the props here because of how consistent Rhodes is. The defending series champion always seems to find a way, and his team is always very aggressive with pit strategy- something that could flip this race upside down and is known to do so at RC’s. Expect Rhodes to run around the Top 5 throughout the day.
Kaz Grala: To Win +4000, +900 Top 3 (Barstool Sportsbook), +300 Top 5 (BetMGM)
I’m obsessed with that Top 5 line. Compare it to DraftKings where he’s at -110 and it’s jaw-dropping- Top 3 as well. Kaz has become quite the road ringer and a proven stud at left and right turns. He finished in the Top 10 when filling in for Austin Dillon in 2020 at the Daytona RC, and in 3 starts last season at RC’s in this series he finished 8th, 2nd, and 12th.
The P2 finish was here at COTA. I’m shocked at how much this book is undervaluing him. I especially love the Top 5 play, but I think at +2500 to win he’s worth a penny.
Ben Rhodes -120 vs Chandler Smith (DraftKings SportsBook)
Ugh. I love Chandler; he is “Truck God II”. It will be a clash of the Truck Gods today when he and Sheldon get on track together today, but Rhodes outpaced Chandler at every road course race in 2021. Chandler had no Top 10’s and Rhodes had 2.
Smith’s best finish in a RC race in 2021 was 12th. Rhodes went to victory lane at one. I gotta go with the stats for this one.