It’s doubleheader Saturday here in Austin, Texas! After we wake up with trucks, we gotta lock in our NASCAR best bets for the Pit Boss 250 for the Xfinity Series. There’s a lot to dive into in covering the betting slate for this race at Circuit of The America’s (COTA).
Ty Gibbs and AJ Allmendinger have paced the field so far, with guys like Cole Custer and Ross Chastain stepping in to try and wreck some havoc as well. Last year, Kyle Busch won this race in the #54 that Gibbs will be piloting this afternoon.
AJ is the ultimate road course ace with absolutely remarkable statistics on tracks with left and right turns, but the brute speed of Ty Gibbs and his Toyota Supra definitely complicate things for AJ and Team Kaulig.
Custer and Chastain have, in my opinion, somewhat surprising speed that could solidify them as factors in this race. Road course specialists Alex Labbe and Preston Pardus have made some early noise as well.
It’s gonna be a super fun day of racing. Let’s make it a super profitable day of betting.
Let’s get right into it.
NASCAR Xfinity Best Bets
Ty Gibbs: To Win +300 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
This kid has just been unbelievable. They call him The Prodigy for a reason. He’s built an incredible resume in just a very short time of racing at a very young age.
In 4 RC starts last season, Ty recorded 2 wins. He’s won just about everywhere already, and road courses certainly are not his weak point as his first career win came at the Daytona Road Course.
There’s not much else to say here. His speed is tremendous, his talent is tremendous, and he’s already won twice this year. I can’t stay away.
AJ Allmendinger: To Win +300 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Honestly, how I might approach this race from a unit perspective is to go all-in on these two guys. DK is doing us a favor by giving them to us at +300 apiece. AJ is poised to get another RC win today.
Let’s go over his stats in 2021 on RC’s; with the exception of crashing at the Daytona RC, here are his finishes: 2nd, 1st, 4th, 2nd, 2nd, 1st. If you could find a line that’s cheaper than -175, I’d consider hammering him for a Top 3.
The stats don’t lie. AJ has world-class racing experience that have shaped him into one of the top road course racers in the world. It’s a must to take him to win at +300.
Justin Allgaier (-115) vs. Daniel Hemric (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Allgaier is an underrated RC racer as he finished 3rd in this race last year and was very much a contender throughout. He has had great speed throughout 2022 as well.
Hemric was hit or miss at RC’s in 2021 and stacks up very similarly to Allgaier, but I’m gonna ride the fact that the downgrade in equipment will effect Hemric. He was in arguably the best racecar in the series last year, and now he’s in a Top 10 racecar. I like the value in taking Allgaier here.
Sheldon Creed (-150) vs. Bubba Wallace (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Speaking of that best car in the series, Bubba will be behind the wheel of it today. It’s not always about the car in racing, contrary to my last pick’s primary talking point.
Bubba Wallace has really struggled at RC’s over the years. This race helps him prepare for the Cup race on Sunday with extra track time. Sheldon is a proven stout road racer with wins and many Top 5’s in Truck Series competition, and he has a diverse racing portfolio with plenty of experience on left and right turns. Creed was also very fast in practice and qualifying.
-150 is about as far as I will go for this, so I’d grab it while you can. I think Creed wins this easily.
Landon Cassill (-125) vs. Josh Berry (BetMGM)
I like Landon here with his experience. Additionally, he was competitive in practice while Berry struggled in practice and qualifying.
Berry is a true talent, but this is only his 2nd RC start in his short Xfinity Series career. I’m gonna take the experience here with a guy who could get some inside tips from his teammate, AJ Allmendinger.