Ladies and gentlemen, welcome back to Garage Guys Fantasy Sports and get ready for the United Rentals 200 at Phoenix Raceway. The Greatest in the Universe is back to give you NASCAR best bets ahead of the weekend.
Keep in mind: practice and qualifying can influence some changes when it comes down to my official betting card. Follow me to keep up with my official betting card, here.
Last week at Vegas we just about nailed the to-win bets with Allgaier and Gragson being the top plays. Unfortunately, they were victims of late-race restarts and relinquished the win to Ty “The Prodigy” Gibbs. Matchups ended up being a mess. Late-race restarts are the lead provider of betting tragedies in NASCAR. We saw that on Sunday as well.
Fortunately, Phoenix, historically, typically is characterized by long green-flag runs and not so much by abundance of crashes and cautions. So maybe we’ll see a more predictable finish here this weekend. Regardless of how this race goes, bets will be placed. 401K is going down on a few drivers this weekend, so let’s find out who those potential drivers may be.
Let’s get right into it.
NASCAR Xfinity Best Bets
Ty Gibbs +500 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
He had no business winning that race last weekend. Let’s be honest. He did not have the best car, but he capitalized late.
But I feel differently about him this week. This car had top 3 speed at both Phoenix races; one of which was driven by Ty, and he finished 2nd. Joe Gibbs Racing has been exceptional here, and now there are no Penske cars in the series to deal with. Book Gibbs as an early top play.
Justin Allgaier +500 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Phoenix is one of Justin’s best tracks. He should have more wins here than just two, but he also should have won last week at Vegas. Shit happens.
And hopefully what happens at Vegas stays at Vegas, and Allgaier can hold on in the end. In his last 14 starts at Phoenix: 11 Top 10’s, 8 Top 5’s, 5 Top 3’s, and 2 wins. Look for Allgaier to be in the mix and potentially dominate this race.
Brandon Jones +1600 (BetMGM)
Jones is a formidable underdog play here as a former Phoenix winner. And contrary to how Jones usually wins his races – positioning himself to capitalize on the mistakes of others – he actually won here in 2019 in a race that featured a long run to the checkered flag.
Jones stronger points are at flatter tracks, and at Phoenix over his last 7 starts he has 5 finishes of 7th or better and 2 Top 3 finishes (including his 2019 win). Jones has had a mixed start to the season, look for him to bounce back with a strong run on Saturday.
Sheldon Creed +3300 (BetMGM)
This feels like a Creed week. Solid results thus far in his first full-time campaign in the Xfinity series, with 2 Top 10’s in 3 starts. Phoenix was good to him in trucks as he won the 2020 championship by winning this race and followed it up with a 4th-place finish in 2021.
Sheldon ran here in this series last season in the finale. He raced an RCR prepared racecar for BJ McLeod and finished 10th. I think that experience could prove helpful on Saturday. The value here is tremendous for a very talented driver in a very fast car. Sprinkle a little magic on Creed come Saturday.
Justin Allgaier (-130) vs Josh Berry
This line JUST moved. I’m not even kidding; was at -115 earlier today.
Reasons why I’m on Allgaier were stated earlier, but I like this matchup because Josh Berry is inexperienced here in an Xfinity Series racecar. Berry ran here once last spring, but was never much of a contender and ended up getting collected in a crash. I love Allgaier in this one.
Sheldon Creed (-105) over Austin Hill
Diddo on reasons stated earlier about why I like Sheldon. I’m surprised he’s the underdog in this matchup. Hill has impressed, but the books are highly underestimating Creed. I like the value while it’s there. I think Creed beats Hill handily.