Welcome back to the Greatest NASCAR Bettor in the History of the Universe. This Saturday the NASCAR DFS slate shifts back to lefts and rights as we head to Mid-Ohio for the B&L Transport 170.
Mid-Ohio is the first road course the Xfinity Series heads to that has actually been a staple for the series since 2013. Austin Cindric is the defending winner of this race last run back in 2019.
If I had told you that in the two road course races run so far in 2021 that Austin Cindric and AJ Allmendinger would be winless, would you believe me?
You have no choice now, because it’s a fact. The #54 has been outstanding on the road courses with wins notched by Ty Gibbs and Kyle Fucking Busch.
Do you see where this is going? Let me help you: what is most likely to happen?
At the end of the day, my ideology on betting will always rely upon that question. You’re telling me that Cindric or AJ, the two God’s of road courses, are gonna go 0-3 on road courses to start the season?
No chance- I think it’s a near certainty that one of them captures the flag on Saturday.
The tough part is predicting who out of their competitors will step up and fill out the rest of my lineups. These road courses can be super unpredictable as we’ve seen in the past.
Let’s get right into it.
NASCAR DFS Xfinity Picks For DraftKings
AJ Allmendinger: #16 Kaulig Racing Chevrolet – $10,700
I still think back to the Daytona road course where AJ made an inexplicably ridiculous move and took himself out of the race at the end of stage one. I believe the legend of Ty Gibbs gets delayed if AJ doesn’t make that move.
AJ ran 2nd to KFB at Circuit of the America’s a couple weeks back, and if KFB weren’t in that race, AJ probably wins that one too.
I think this one will be the AJ vs. Cindric show that we’ve enjoyed in the past. AJ is my top play this week as he rolls of from the 12th position on Saturday. Don’t overthink it.
Noah Gragson: #9 JR Motorsports Chevrolet – $10,200
Starting just behind Allmendinger is, my man, Noah Gragson.
It has been such an insane up and down year for Noah as he remains winless on the season. The curse from Miami has yet to be broken.
Gragson ran 5th in this race in 2019, and is a solid road racer. I know the stats from this season don’t back it up, but he’s been stricken by horrible luck in both road course races this season.
I like Gragson to finish in the Top 5 if he can keep it clean and avoid the sporadic bad luck that continues to linger throughout 2021. He has tremendous upside for Saturday.
Austin Cindric: #22 Penske Racing Ford – $10,900
It’s gonna be an expensive Saturday on the salaries.
Is there anything I can say to tempt you into not taking Cindric?
I don’t think so. He might lead every lap of the race. That’s all I’m writing about this mother fucker.
Gray Gaulding: #52 Jimmy Means Racing Chevrolet – $5,100
I can’t believe I’m writing about Gray Gaulding.
But here I am. Gaulding’s average finish on the two road course races this season is 24.0.
Gaulding starts P40 in this one, and seems to be able to capitalize on the mistake of others to salvage decent finishes. For DFS purposes, a 25th place finish would be massive if you inserted him into your lineup.
You gotta take chances to win money in this DFS business. Gaulding is certainly a chance. I’m on the Gaulding train, baby.
Kyle Weatherman: #47 MHR Chevrolet – $5,300
I’ve watched Weatherman wheel this 2013 Dodge Journey to solid finishes multiple times over the past couple seasons. He finished 16th at the Daytona Road Course earlier this season.
When you get down to these guys that are this cheap, it becomes sort of a crapshoot on who survives a random mechanical failure or a blown engine. That’s what makes me cringe when I write about these guys.
But if a driver like Weatherman, with a P35 starting spot, can avoid the black clouds, his upside is tremendous. Like Gaulding, I expect many front-runners and middle tier guys to make mistakes and take themselves out. It always seems to happen at these road course events.
Keep an eye on Weatherman this Saturday. I think the value is there for a potential Top 20 finish.