Drydene 400 at Dover: NASCAR DFS Premium Rankings

I’m looking to stay hot in NASCAR DFS for the Drydene 400 at Dover after hitting a huge Draftkings tournament last weekend while Garage Guy Chase and Dale were on-site at Darlington. Last weekend was the best Garage Guys weekend yet with huge wins across the board in the forms of both betting and DFS. If you watched the preview video, you already have a clue where I’m looking, but the rankings and notes will provide a more thorough approach.

I rank every driver and tier them based on price. There is no sense to compare Chase Elliot to Quin Houff, but comparing Chase Elliot to Kevin Harvick, for example, tends to make sense. The rankings will be posted first and represent the “initial pass” on my approach to the slate.

The notes represent my “second pass” and will provide more insight into how I am building lineups, what I have learned from looking around the industry, and mention any situations where I’m “hotter” or “colder” on anyone than when I set the rankings. For example, I may mention that there is a large gap in my interest level after the top three ranked drivers in a given tier. Another example would be to point out that drivers ranked 1-3 are interchangeable in terms of my interest. My suggestion is to enter multiple lineups and use the rankings and notes as a guide as you build lineups.

If you are a more serious player building 40+ lineups, I do suggest purchasing a lineup optimizer tool. These are affordable for our more advanced players and you can get them relatively cheap – especially if you are purchasing for NASCAR only. We will definitely look to partner with a third party or build one in-house for next season. If you need help selecting one, I’m here to help explain and recommend what you need. To reiterate – this is only for advanced players and you do not need this unless you have full command of the tool. In fact, it can do more harm than good if you do not know what you are doing.

NASCAR DFS Tiered Rankings – Drydene 400

Chef’s CookBooks

Tier 1 Notes

As I said on the preview video, I’ll be mixing and matching the trio of Truex, Larson, and Hamlin. I’m expecting heavy ownership – especially on Truex. Truex made me and the Garage Fam a ton of money last weekend, but I think he will be the chalk when considering prior data here and recent form. If you want to be different from the field this weekend, it would be playing the cheaper tier 1 plays and going underweight on the big bois. The problem I have with this is Dover is traditionally somewhat predictable. That’s why we see Truex as such a heavy betting favorite. Anything under +400 is crazy and Truex is +350.

My favorite pivots off of the trio are Harvick, KFB, and Elliot in that order. Going into the weekend, I wanted to be overweight on Elliot but he should be priced lower than this. I have a weird feeling about SHR this weekend, and I’m hoping to see their misfortunes fade at Dover.

Tier 2 Notes

That’s right – Kurt Busch ranked well even after screwing DFS players several times this year. The same could be said about Bacon Boi (Aric Almirola). Both of these guys have top 10 potential and look at the starting position and place differential upside. I have a lot of interest in this short tier 2 except for Willy B. Willy B is the ultimate contrarian play just because there are so many expensive dominators and great place differential plays. I’m not finding myself on the guy, but I always try to list a few ways to be contrarian for those of you trying to take down big money with few lineups.

Tier 3 Notes

An important note here – Matt D is ranked 3rd but I ended up on him less than a normal 3rd ranking implies. The reason is pricing constraints forced me more to tier 4 or even Stenhouse, Jones. The appeal with Matt D, Reddick, and Austin Dillon is they have a little more top 10 upside, but they are risky plays. The bulk of my ownership% in this tier belongs to Custer, Bell, Stenhouse (price), but overall I’m underweight on this tier (especially if you exclude Custer).

Tier 4 Notes

The drivers ranked 1-4 all were in the running for #1 so I gave it to Suarez because he may be the lowest owned. I’m playing all 4 pretty equally – Chastain the most. Berry and McLeoud are probably my favorite super turds but a lot of drivers could quickly fall behind the lead lap at Dover.

Platform Insights (DraftKings/FanDuel)

I’m adding this section just to point out a few things across platforms as I’m building lineups. As a reminder, place differential, laps led, and fastest laps are more important on DraftKings. FanDuel is all about finishing position so your goal should be to get as many drivers that can finish inside the top 10/top 5.

  • I’m going to keep this section brief this week. Overall, FD pricing is extra soft with pricing that allows you to do a lot since they did not price up Kurt B, Aric A, and Cole Custer (all PD plays). If you have specific questions, hit me up in Discord but the pricing is pretty straight forward except for the severe underpricing at FD on the PD plays.

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