Another race, another short track this weekend with NASCAR DFS at Richmond. Truex has taken a firm grip on the 2021 season with his 2nd win last weekend, and he finds himself the favorite for this upcoming race. I want to take a moment to echo the importance of reading the notes and entering multiple lineups to diversify. You need to be getting different combinations of these dominators, or understand that it may take weeks to hit if you are playing a tight core or limited lineups. Either method is fine, but thinking you can play a tight core and few lineups and cash in tournaments regularly is crazy. Remember only ~20% of lineups cash in tournaments/GPPs.
I rank every driver and tier them based on price. There is no sense to compare Chase Elliot to Quin Houff, but comparing Chase Elliot to Kevin Harvick, for example, tends to make sense. The rankings will be posted first and represent the “initial pass” on my approach to the slate.
The notes represent my “second pass” and will provide more insight into how I am building lineups, what I have learned from looking around the industry, and mention any situations where I’m “hotter” or “colder” on anyone than when I set the rankings. For example, I may mention that there is a large gap in my interest level after the top three ranked drivers in a given tier. Another example would be to point out that drivers ranked 1-3 are interchangeable in terms of my interest. My suggestion is to enter multiple lineups and use the rankings and notes as a guide as you build lineups.
If you are a more serious player building 40+ lineups, I do suggest purchasing a lineup optimizer tool. These are affordable for our more advanced players and you can get them relatively cheap – especially if you are purchasing for NASCAR only. We will definitely look to partner with a third party or build one in-house for next season. If you need help selecting one, I’m here to help explain and recommend what you need. To reiterate – this is only for advanced players and you do not need this unless you have full command of the tool. In fact, it can do more harm than good if you do not know what you are doing.
NASCAR DFS Tiered Rankings – Toyota Owners 400
Tier 1 Notes
You will need 2-3 dominators in each lineup this weekend with how the laps led/fastest laps works We very well could see another race where Hamlin and Truex are going at it for the win with both of them starting upfront at a track with great statistical history. Most of the tier 1 drivers are starting towards the front here – except Brad K. This makes him have the most PD upside, but DK did a good job pricing him up. I like the idea of getting combinations of these top-ranked drivers, but do not be afraid to mix in some of the poorer-ranked drivers that are capable of leading laps. Last weekend, I mentioned Blaney and Hamlin as two of my favorite GPP dominators despite their rankings, and I’m not sure if that point came across to all of our subs. This week some of my favorite GPP dominators to mix in are Larson and Joseph L.
Tier 2 Notes
You should be able to snag someone out of this range on your 2 dom lineups, but 3 dom lineups will put you in a stars and scrubs approach. Bowman and Kurt were both running well at times last weekend before running into issues out of our control. I do prefer Bowman this week with more PD upside. Cindric is the safest play on the board because of his starting spot, but the question will be about his finishing position upside. I wish we had some practice and qualifying. Bacon Boi, Bowman, and Kurt B will be the pivots off Cindric.
Tier 3 Notes
So I gave Erik Jones and Ryan Newman the better ranking over Christopher Bell, but Bell has the most upside in this range. I’m going to most likely end up on more Bell than Newman for that reason, and it will be close between Bell and Jones. Austin Dillon has the most finishing position potential outside of Bell.
Tier 4 Notes
Play this range as ranked with Suarez leading the way. He has been a great punt for us this year when he starts further back. I do wish he was a little cheaper, but that should not prevent him from being popular. Stenhouse, like Bell in T3, has the most finishing potential upside but carries risk starting P14.
Platform Insights (DraftKings/FanDuel)
I’m adding this section just to point out a few things across platforms as I’m building lineups. As a reminder, place differential, laps led, and fastest laps are more important on DraftKings. FanDuel is all about finishing position so your goal should be to get as many drivers that can finish inside the top 10/top 5.
- Cindric will carry ownership on both sites but his FD price is stupid low at 6k
- Erik Jones is the same story as Cindric on FD
- 2-3 doms on DK involves some punting but just really focus on finishing potential on FD
- Pricing fairly aligned this week across platforms outside of the two big ones