Welcome to the show; the name is Dale Tanhardt. The undisputed greatest NASCAR bettor in the history of the universe returns for your NASCAR DFS needs.
Their success is unquestionable as year after year they dominate the NASCAR DFS world in the NASCAR Cup Series. It will be remarkably challenging to have to compete with their picks. Good thing I don’t have to.
As Chef and Chase continue to do their thing providing constant DFS cash flow opportunities for the Cup Series, I will be providing all the content you need for the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series (NCWTS), continuing with the Pinty’s Truck Race on Dirt at Bristol Motor Speedway.
What in the fuck kind of race title is that? They could have made it something so cool. Sheeeeeeeesh.
Look; there’s no question:
I am the best in the universe. If you read all of my truck articles on the year, they have been on the money for the most part. They’ve been calling me the Truck God recently. The only race that was a slight struggle was the Daytona Road course and the winners that entire weekend all were shocking.
But, naturally, God hates me. So what does he/she do?
God gave me dirt.
Maybe God doesn’t actually hate me. Maybe he/she just wants to give me a more difficult obstacle to prove my worthiness. And based on the adverse circumstances affecting this new surface, calling this a difficult obstacle is a major understatement.
Confidence remains high, however. Because I have predicted the race winner in three of the first four races of the season, the first and second-place finishers in the last two races, and scored over 75% of all DFS lineups in the money on DraftKings over the course of the season, there is no doubt we can keep the hot streak rolling at The Last Great (Dirt) Coliseum.
On the 2021 NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Season, I am +36.2 Units on straight betting.
By the way, that’s only through four races.
Though I have not yet hit the big DFS tournament money-maker just yet, it’s gonna happen. I’ve missed the massive payouts on a few of my lineups by the skin of my teeth.
With the adverse circumstances heading into this weekend, it’s worth noting that my article is being released quite later than usual, but for good reason. I’m not the type of person to blindly throw darts. I always study the data.
Big Stats Guy.
So, I opted to wait and see what the practice time offered to the field could offer me heading into Saturday. I question how accurately the data from Eldora (the dirt track this series has raced on for six years) would translate for this event.
I truly believe observing the practice sessions made me feel more confident and comfortable with who I am riding in my DFS lineups come Saturday night.
Tail accordingly. Don’t forget: WE ARE RACING ON DIRT AT BRISTOL!
How insane does that sound?
Anyway, let’s get right into it. Here’s who I like when the trucks get rollin’ on Saturday night.
Keep in mind: qualifying is not until Saturday afternoon. Place differential is not considered in these plays.
Since we have a 40 driver field, I am giving a total of seven drivers this week.
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Sheldon Creed: #2 GMS Racing Chevrolet – $10,000
I probably was going to pencil in Creed regardless of what I learned in practice. Creed is a natural wheelman who has proven he can lead laps and race competitively at any type of track. He has some solid dirt experience, including a 2nd place finish at Eldora in 2019.
Creed showed good speed in both practices on Friday and ran Top 10 in 10-lap averages in both sessions. I think Creed, if he doesn’t win, will run Top 3 in his heat qualifier, rewarding him with excellent track position for the race.
If I could pick a couple of “Truck Regulars” that could go out and beat Kyle Larson or Chase Briscoe, Creed easily qualifies as one on Saturday night.
Stewart Friesen: #52 Halmar Racing Toyota – $10,500
Speaking of “Truck Regulars”, Friesen is the dirt ace of the series. In his last three races at Eldora, he’s finished 2nd, 3rd, and 1st. I know this isn’t the typical dirt track, but you simply cannot argue with Friesen’s dirt background and accomplishments.
Top 5 lap times in both practice sessions help his case as well. Friesen has also started the season strong. Three Top 11 finishes in as many races provide solid momentum heading into a race that fits perfectly in Friesen’s wheelhouse. I expect Friesen, like Creed, to run up front and compete for the win.
Matt Crafton: #88 ThorSport Racing Toyota – $8,600
Crafton, a former Eldora winner in 2017, has finished in the Top 10 in all six truck races held at Eldora. His resume reveals insane consistency on dirt.
The factors at Bristol will certainly be different than what we’ve seen at Eldora over the years. The unknowns tend to make me lean towards the veterans (like Crafton), and at his price, Crafton is a solid play for the Dirt Feature on Saturday night.
Todd Gilliland: #38 Front Row Motorsports Ford – $7,200
Gilliland’s price is very interesting to me. He has two Eldora races under his belt and finished 5th at the last Eldora race in 2019. The speed that the #38 showed in the practice sessions sticks out to me as well.
Gilliland had the fastest 10-lap average in the first practice, and that was run from lap 14 to lap 23. The track shows to be corrosive to tires very early as speeds fall off almost immediately. Only two other drivers in the Top 10 on 10-lap averages ran their fast 10 laps after lap 12 (Creed, P8 and Hill, P9).
In final practice, Gilliland had the 6th best speed on 10-lap averages ranging from lap 16 to 25. The latest lap another driver in the Top 10 on that list started his fast run on was lap 4 (Smith, P2).
Basically, Gilliland ran his fastest laps on a slower racetrack than what the other leaders ran on in both sessions. I’m not trying to look too far into the practice sessions, but if there’s one piece of data that sticks out, it’s the guess that Todd is gonna have a super-fast truck for Saturday night.
Kyle Larson: #44 Niece Motorsports Chevrolet – $11,500
The man. Big friend of the show.
The record speaks for itself. Larson is easily one of the greatest racecar drivers on dirt of all time. And, out of all the dirt ringers, he is by far in the best equipment this weekend.
I love Briscoe and Newman on Saturday as well. I will likely make multiple different lineups pairing Newman with Larson/Briscoe. The bottom line is that I can’t not talk about Kyle Larson.
Keep in mind a random note regarding Newman: the weather forecast for Saturday shows a high chance of rain. If the qualifying heats get rained out, Newman will be one of the drivers who does not make the race, as he has no points to fall back on.
Larson is the “Kyle Busch” play this weekend. You can probably find some money in lineups that don’t include Larson, as the unpredictability factor could turn this race upside down.
Larson’s price is far from unreasonable, and don’t be surprised if he leads the most laps and wins on Saturday night.
Hallie Deegan: #1 DGR Ford – $5,500
This could be bait.
But I’m taking it. The research supports it. The gut feeling is there.
Deegan has a very solid foundation regarding racing on dirt. In two races at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway dirt track in the NASCAR K&N West series, she recorded a 1st and 2nd place finish. She had some solid speed in practice on Friday as well.
Look, I know that’s a lower series with lesser competition, but her price combined with veteran dirt experience tempts me to take chances on her in many of my lineups. If she can run in the Top 20, she will bring positive results to your lineups.
Mike Marlar: #56 Hill Motorsports Chevrolet – $6,900
Gotta pick at least one dirt ace who doesn’t regularly compete in NASCAR, right?
If there was one I had to pick, it would probably be this guy. He piloted a Reaume Brothers Dodge Durango to a 3rd (!!!) place finish at Eldora in 2019. If he can do that, he can do anything.
With that being said, I do think his tag is a little high. But, I just can’t find another one of these drivers that I can trust. JR Heffner at $6,800 isn’t too bad, but after a hard crash in practice on Friday, that team will resort to a backup truck.
At the end of the day, you’re just looking for a guy like this who can be decently competitive and finish the race. I think Marlar is the best candidate to fit the shoe.