Welcome to the show; the name is Dale Tanhardt. The undisputed greatest NASCAR bettor in the history of the universe returns for your NASCAR DFS needs for the Fr8Auctions 200 at Atlanta Motor Speedway.
Their success is unquestionable as year after year they dominate the NASCAR DFS world in the NASCAR Cup Series. It will be remarkably challenging to have to compete with their picks. Good thing I don’t have to.
As Chef and Chase continue to do their thing providing constant DFS cash flow opportunities for the Cup Series, I will be providing all the content you need for the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series (NCWTS), continuing with the Fr8Auctions 200 at Atlanta Motor Speedway on Saturday afternoon.
Reminder: Trucks were off last week. The prior week at Las Vegas, we hit HUGE with John Hunter Nemechek dominating the event and holding off KFB to secure his first win (of likely many to come) of the season.
Kyle Busch will be back in the #51 to shake things up once again, and Ross Chastain will be back in the #44 Niece Motorsports machine to run double-duty as well. KFB is priced at $14,000 and Chastain at $13,000 via DraftKings.
These drivers add such an interesting, difficult dynamic to this race. You must figure that since Kyle was snake-bitten last week and in this race last year, he would run away with this one on Saturday, right?
How can you not start Chastain with a P40 starting spot? Place-differential will gobble up some points for Chastain as anybody would figure he’d have a shot at the win by the end, right?
The big-money lineups that result from Saturday are going to be very interesting to see. I will be playing many, many lineups. I will find a way to feature both of these drivers throughout. Just remember: it’s entirely possible to win money without them in your lineups.
At Las Vegas, I only made five lineups because I went so deep in straight-betting. Not that confidence was low on DFS or anything, confidence was just super high on straights because of the value on the table, and it paid off.
All five lineups scored deep in the money, and four of them did not feature Kyle Busch. Busch was the 2nd highest scorer on Draftkings with 80.2 points.
Here’s your reminder of how that #TrucksNightInAmerica went a couple of Fridays ago. They don’t call me the Truck God for no reason. My two picks finished 1st and 2nd; it doesn’t get any more accurate than that.
Anyways, you may or may not see Busch or Chastain below. I’m gonna leave this cliffhanger and let you scroll down to find out.
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NASCAR DFS Truck Picks For DraftKings
Derek Kraus: #19 McAnally-Hilgemann Racing Toyota – $8,100
It’s been a tough start to the season for the Wisconsin native. I expect Atlanta to be a good turnaround point for him and his race team on Saturday.
Unrelated: I’ve raced with this guy on iRacing before a handful of times. He waxed the field each time. I’m not saying he’s gonna wax the field in real life come Saturday afternoon, but I expect good things.
Kraus’s strong suit in 2020 was the 1.5-mile racetracks. He finished in the Top 11 in seven of ten races run on 1.5-mile tracks in 2020, including a 7th place finish at Atlanta a year ago.
If you remove both Las Vegas races from that count, it’s seven of eight races. Kraus starts P29 and is a very worthy play at his price. I expect serious potential for a Top 15 or a Top 10.
Grant Enfinger: #98 ThorSport Racing Toyota – $9,000
I love Enfinger on Saturday. Not only do I expect him to run in the Top 10, I expect him to contend for the win. This price tag combined with his P19 starting position provides absurd value.
In the last two races at Atlanta, Enfinger’s finishes are 3rd and 1st. His success here in recent years along with his speed at the intermediates (when piloting the #98) is a strong indicator of what could be in the Fr8Auctions 200.
It also must be considered that he is inexplicably driving part-time for ThorSport after he was unable to secure sponsors for the entire season following a Championship 4 appearance last season. Grant is desperate and hungry to win as each opportunity in this truck becomes much more precious with an uncertain future.
Note it: desperate, hungry racecar drivers facing adversity are dangerous to the competition. I expect a Top 5 from Grant on Saturday.
John Hunter Nemechek: #4 Kyle Busch Motorsports Toyota – $9,600
I love this guy. He won me a lot of money a few weeks ago. I warned everybody of his looming breakout season, (not that it was tough to predict) and he has already paid dividends. For straight betting purposes, you probably won’t be able to grab him at +1200 ever again.
He brings such an advantage to KBM this season. As you have the GMS fleet fielding more inexperienced, younger drivers, KBM goes out and brings in JHN- an experienced veteran of the series and a proven winner. I could go all day about this move and the impact it casts upon the series, but let’s get to the point.
Starting P1, Nemechek’s price tag takes a dip to $9,600. Other than Kyle Busch, he’s the best driver in this series with a powerhouse of a team behind him. He’s one of the most solid picks you have to finish in the Top 5. The value he provides at such a low cost for his stature is a steal.
Solid chance I might hammer Nemechek again. He’s a must play in many of your lineups regardless of his low floor.
Spencer Davis: #11 Spencer Davis Motorsports Toyota – $7,000
Welcome back, Spencer.
Davis and his team failed to qualify for the season-opener at Daytona, which completely threw their season for a loop. Davis planned on running full-time but was unable to start the first three races of the season because of the lack of qualifying. The field is partially set by 2021 points, and Davis had none to fall back on after leaving Daytona Beach with a DNQ.
I did not forget about this team: in 2020, the #11 finished in the Top 20 in five of the seven 1.5-mile track races they competed at.
Look, there’s no doubt there’s some risk associated with this team because of the lack of track time, but his floor is so low, and his ceiling is so high that the risk is worth it. If he has a mechanical failure or crashes, he will not decimate your lineups. I will be playing a lot of Spencer on Saturday.
Kyle Busch: #51 Kyle Busch Motorsports Toyota – $14,000
Yep; couldn’t help myself. I really try to find my way around the super obvious chalk and super high-priced drivers, but I simply cannot avoid it in this slate. I think that, in the NCWTS, this is the greatest opportunity you will ever have to bet on KFB this weekend, and here’s why:
KFB is a winner of 59 races in his dominant truck career in a total of 156 starts.
Let’s break it down some more.
Since 2013, KFB is a winner in 29 of 52 races he’s competed in. For all the hardcore math experts out there, that’s a win percentage of 56%.
How about some more?
Since the rule of Cup drivers participating in a maximum of five races per season in Xfinity and Trucks was implemented in 2018, KFB has won 10 of the 16 races he has competed in.
After finishing 2nd to his company driver, John Hunter Nemechek, there is little doubt in my mind that KFB gets out front early and stays there. His P2 starting spot bodes well for him to lead most of the race and take the checkered flag.
Five wins and eight Top 3 finishes at this track provide any extra validation you need to pencil in KFB in many of your lineups on Saturday. The bottom line is that statistics do not lie. You have a driver here who has won over 50% of his races in this series over the past eight years and 63% of his races over the past three years and change.
Considering all of those truly sexy statistics, KFB did not win in his first appearance of the season. So, that tells me, according to the data, he will win on Saturday to meet the criteria of his averages stated above.
Okay. That’s enough. As you can see, I’m a Big Stats Guy.
Let’s make some bank, Garage Fam.
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