The Alvin Kamara Special: 2018 ADPs For 2019 Keepers
A keeper is a player that you can keep and holdover for your team for the next season. For the 12-Man league that I participate in, we are allowed to only keep one player drafted in 2017, or players who were traded to you that were drafted in 2017, for the 2018 season. When you keep this player, the team MUST give up the round that player was drafted in in 2017.
I will use my 2017 season of my 12 man league (Be You At BU) as an example. I was able to pick Alvin Kamara, Saints RB [2017 Average Draft Position (ADP) RB59] in the 13thround and was able to obtain him again in 2018 by just giving up the 2018 13thround pick (2018 ADP Overall 1.7). ADP is important in this respect, because Kamara well surpassed his ADP at RB59 from the 2017 season, making his value strong as a keeper for the 2018 season as a keeper.
All four position groups are represented by one player, with one, Alvin Kamara Special to finish the story off:
Sam Darnold, New York Jets, No Overall ADP
Disclaimer: I am a long die hard Jets fan, but after knowing and observing what good quarterback play is in the NFL, and watching a team who hasn’t had a QB like Sam Darnold since Joe Namath, I can promise you that this kid is going to be good, and I might go as far to say special.
The ceiling in the 21 year old mobile gunslinger from USC is extremely high. Seth Galina’s Football Outsiders Futures Evaluation of the number #3 overall pick explained it perfectly, “His weaknesses help reveal his true strengths.” His mastering of the Run-Pass-Option (RPO), his great arm strength, his control of the huddle, his vision on the field, his great ability to move within the pocket and run out of the pocket to make a play as a rookie, is extremely impressive.
The Jets landed with a pot of gold, and will invest in the 2019 Off Season in improving that offensive line to protect this pot of gold. Add Robby Anderson, Quincy Enunwa, Jermaine Kearse, Terrelle Pryor, Bilal Powell, Isiah Crowell this year with more talent with talent coming in 2019 (Jets have 9thmost salary cap space in the 2019 off-season), do not be surprised of Carson Wentz like 2017 coming from Sam Darnold in 2019.
Kerryon Johnson, Detroit Lions, Overall ADP Round 5.2
This spot was a toss-up between Kerryon Johnson and Royce Freeman, as both will end up being starters for their respective teams by year’s end barring injury. Since Johnson’s ADP is lower than Freeman’s (3.9), he is the currently the better value to keep for the 2019 season. The Auburn RB has three down ability, to run inside and each the edge on the outside, with positive pass protection ability.
Detroit has brought in LeGarrette Blount for inside running and still has Theo Riddick in this backfield to catch some screen passes and work the edge, but the Lions realized that Johnson his ability to make defenders miss (57 forced missed tackles in 2017) was a special quality moved up eight picks by giving up their second round pick and an additional 4throunder to the Patriots to get their guy. They intend to use him presently this year, and the future for many years to come. I was able to obtain Kerryon in round 8 in my 12 man keeper league, hoping it will be a steal. 5thand 6thround pick for Kerryon would be considered a steal for his value next year.
Robby Anderson, New York Jets, 2018 Avg Overall ADP Round 8.3
Alright, so you think I’m a homer since I’m a Jets fan, but dwell on this. As referenced with Sam Darnold, he’s going to be special and thrive in this league, so he needs a partner in crime to thrive with to grow, enter Robby Anderson. The 2016 undrafted free agent (UDFA) out of Temple had a breakout 2017 season with Josh McCown and garnered WR2 numbers. With Sam Darnold having a higher ceiling with more accuracy and off the cuff play-making than McCown, the potential for Anderson to be a WR1 with dangerous deep threat ability has potential to scare defensive coordinators for years to come.
If Anderson puts it together altogether after the catch in immediate routes, fantasy owners who drafted Anderson may salivate over the possibilities of his 2019 campaign. He may have a 1-2 game suspension coming down the wire this season or next, but if he’s putting up close to 90-100/1100-1300/ in 2018, that’s the opportunity for the UDFA to be drafted in the 2-3 rounds of the 2019 draft. He may be a risk, but the value may prove is too good not to take.
Trey Burton, Chicago Bears, 2018 Avg Overall ADP 7.3
The former Eagle has made his way to another Andy Reid disciple, Bears Head Coach Matt Nagy, who was recently just left being the offensive coordinator for the Kansas City Chiefs under, you guessed it, Andy Reid. Thinking of the names of Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, Brent Celek that are in this coaching tree, Burton should not have a problem finding his name atop of the TE depth chart after backing up Ertz last year.
Earning positive PFF grades in pass protection, run blocking, and most importantly receiving last year, Burton is up for a huge role, one that may lead to a top 5, with maybe top 3 upside for 2019 based of Mitch Trubisky’s growth in his third year.
The Alvin Kamara Special: James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers, Overall ADP Round 14.2
I got a small hunch that Le’Veon Bell may not find his way on the 2019 Steelers roster. Why not have his elite backup handcuff for 2018 to 2019, James Conner, as an immediate 2019 RB1/RB2 with an elite offensive line, in rounds 14 or 15. This is the textbook definition of a perfect keeper, where the value in 2018 way exceeds expectation.
Yes, you are taking a chance with the unknown, but overall, Conner has looked good in place for Bell so far this preseason. Conner is an instant RB1 in fantasy if Bell goes down in 2018, and there’s no reason Conner is an instant RB1 when/if Bell leaves the Steelers after the 2019 season. Not bad for a hometown kid who had to beat the odds against cancer, and it looks like he can beat it again.
Now its your turn, who are you eyeing or have drafted with keepers in mind?