ADP Risers Wideouts!

With the NFL 2018 preseason underway it is time to find those best values to target in your fantasy drafts. This is the season of influx – with players dealing with not-so-well disclosed injuries and others making a name for themselves in camp and the preseason.Late summer is the time for average draft position (ADP) fluctuations which can make or break your draft.

Lets take a look at a couple recent draft risers that I think are worth monitoring in PPR Redraft leagues.

Anthony Miller – Chicago Bears

Miller was the 51st pick of the 2018 NFL Draft out of the University of Memphis, who the Bears traded up with the Patriots to secure. Standing 5’11” and 190 pounds Miller is of average stature, but he has the intangibles to make an immediate impact this season. During his tenure at Memphis, specifically 2016 and 2017 he topped 1,400 yards per season with an average over 15 yards per reception and had 14 and 18 touchdowns respectively. That is legitimate production regardless of conference.

Lets take a look at what he has done in Bears camp to date. Here is a tweet courtesy of @GBraggsJr that gives you a taste of his potential.

Whenever taking a rookie there is certainly risk. This guy is one bet I would take at his current ADP of the mid 13th round, which is music to my ears. If Miller does blow up and has an amazing preseason this is certain to rise into the late single digit rounds or higher. He is currently listed as WR3 on the Bears initial depth charts, behind Taylor Gabriel, but I have a feeling he will climb to the WR2 spot if he continues to do what he does.

Jarvis Landry – Cleveland Browns

The Browns made a ton of off-season additions to strengthen their roster. They traded a 2018 4th and 7th round picks to the Miami Dolphins to acquire the 25-year-old target monster. Following the trade the Browns went all in on Landry signing him to a five-year $75 million contract with $47 million guaranteed. I am willing to bet that phone call with his boy Odell Beckham Jr. was interesting, as his team is currently in negotiations with the Giants to lock up an even larger deal (more on that to come)!

The more recent news that is skyrocketing his ADP is the unknown surrounding the Josh Gordon situation, while he is in couseling for his well documented addiction issues. The trade of Corey Coleman to the Bills also impacts this as does the news of Antonio Callaway’s receent citation for weed possession.

On the flip side, I believe the hype around the “Hard Knocks” series could drive his ADP up above his value, considering the fact that Gordon will most likely return, Dez is rumored to be in discussions with the Browns, and Duke Johnson Jr. will always get his targets. Here is a taste of the hype couresty of @JzoSports:

Since July 30th, Juice’s ADP has risen from the mid-5th round to the mid-4th, couresy of Fantasy Insiders (big thanks to the Man @FantasyADHD !) This is a great tool for montoring ADP that can pay dividends for your draft preparations. My guess is that if you are drafting in a competitive league that drafts around the end of preseason this could rise to the 3rd dependant on the news surrounding Dez and Gordon.

Marquise Goodwin – San Fransisco 49ers

Goodwin is a potential target-monster in an offense constructed by Kyle Shanahan. This guy can absolutely fly – clocked at a 40 speed of 4.27 per his NFL Profile. He also showed chemistry with Jimmy G which we would expect to continue going into the 2018 season, after a full schedule of OTAs and camp. In March, the 9ers also signed him to 3-year $20.3M contract extension, which leads us to believe they have large plans for him.

Here is a breakdown of his stats with Jimmy G at the healm in a Kyle Shanahan offense  from week 12 of the 2017 season.

Week Tgt Rec Yds Yards/Rec TD
12 8 8 99 12.4 0
13 12 6 106 17.7 0
14 13 10 114 11.4 0
15 6 3 37 12.3 0
16 4 2 28 14 1
Average 8.6 5.8 76.8 13.6

Goodwin ADP has risen from the mid-8th to late-6th round over the last month. The expected target share of 8-10 targets/game support that jump. However, my concern is with the redzone shares and lack of TD volume with Garoppolo to-date. Goodwin is a freak athlete that I will be monitoring over the next few weeks. He has a high ceiling but also a low floor so this is one to watch over the remaining preseason.

That is a look at a few Wideouts we see climbing draft boards. Who are you targeting or watching closely as your drafts get closer to fruition?

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