Big thanks to everyone that drafted with us last night. Below on the “not-so-big” board you can see how things went down (Just Zoom In!)
The draft order and must follows are:
Stayed tuned into the pod and the site to get updates on how this plays out.
Oh, and which squad do you like the most and why?
With the NFL 2018 preseason underway it is time to find those best values to target in your fantasy drafts. This is the season of influx – with players dealing with not-so-well disclosed injuries and others making a name for themselves in camp and the preseason.Late summer is the time for average draft position (ADP) fluctuations which can make or break your draft.
Lets take a look at a couple recent draft risers that I think are worth monitoring in PPR Redraft leagues.
Miller was the 51st pick of the 2018 NFL Draft out of the University of Memphis, who the Bears traded up with the Patriots to secure. Standing 5’11” and 190 pounds Miller is of average stature, but he has the intangibles to make an immediate impact this season. During his tenure at Memphis, specifically 2016 and 2017 he topped 1,400 yards per season with an average over 15 yards per reception and had 14 and 18 touchdowns respectively. That is legitimate production regardless of conference.
Lets take a look at what he has done in Bears camp to date. Here is a tweet courtesy of @GBraggsJr that gives you a taste of his potential.
Whenever taking a rookie there is certainly risk. This guy is one bet I would take at his current ADP of the mid 13th round, which is music to my ears. If Miller does blow up and has an amazing preseason this is certain to rise into the late single digit rounds or higher. He is currently listed as WR3 on the Bears initial depth charts, behind Taylor Gabriel, but I have a feeling he will climb to the WR2 spot if he continues to do what he does.
The Browns made a ton of off-season additions to strengthen their roster. They traded a 2018 4th and 7th round picks to the Miami Dolphins to acquire the 25-year-old target monster. Following the trade the Browns went all in on Landry signing him to a five-year $75 million contract with $47 million guaranteed. I am willing to bet that phone call with his boy Odell Beckham Jr. was interesting, as his team is currently in negotiations with the Giants to lock up an even larger deal (more on that to come)!
The more recent news that is skyrocketing his ADP is the unknown surrounding the Josh Gordon situation, while he is in couseling for his well documented addiction issues. The trade of Corey Coleman to the Bills also impacts this as does the news of Antonio Callaway’s receent citation for weed possession.
On the flip side, I believe the hype around the “Hard Knocks” series could drive his ADP up above his value, considering the fact that Gordon will most likely return, Dez is rumored to be in discussions with the Browns, and Duke Johnson Jr. will always get his targets. Here is a taste of the hype couresty of @JzoSports:
Since July 30th, Juice’s ADP has risen from the mid-5th round to the mid-4th, couresy of Fantasy Insiders (big thanks to the Man @FantasyADHD !) This is a great tool for montoring ADP that can pay dividends for your draft preparations. My guess is that if you are drafting in a competitive league that drafts around the end of preseason this could rise to the 3rd dependant on the news surrounding Dez and Gordon.
Goodwin is a potential target-monster in an offense constructed by Kyle Shanahan. This guy can absolutely fly – clocked at a 40 speed of 4.27 per his NFL Profile. He also showed chemistry with Jimmy G which we would expect to continue going into the 2018 season, after a full schedule of OTAs and camp. In March, the 9ers also signed him to 3-year $20.3M contract extension, which leads us to believe they have large plans for him.
Here is a breakdown of his stats with Jimmy G at the healm in a Kyle Shanahan offense from week 12 of the 2017 season.
| Week | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Yards/Rec | TD |
| 12 | 8 | 8 | 99 | 12.4 | 0 |
| 13 | 12 | 6 | 106 | 17.7 | 0 |
| 14 | 13 | 10 | 114 | 11.4 | 0 |
| 15 | 6 | 3 | 37 | 12.3 | 0 |
| 16 | 4 | 2 | 28 | 14 | 1 |
| Average | 8.6 | 5.8 | 76.8 | 13.6 |
Goodwin ADP has risen from the mid-8th to late-6th round over the last month. The expected target share of 8-10 targets/game support that jump. However, my concern is with the redzone shares and lack of TD volume with Garoppolo to-date. Goodwin is a freak athlete that I will be monitoring over the next few weeks. He has a high ceiling but also a low floor so this is one to watch over the remaining preseason.
That is a look at a few Wideouts we see climbing draft boards. Who are you targeting or watching closely as your drafts get closer to fruition?
The 2018 Fantasy Season is finally almost here! If you take fantasy football seriously you are most likely already mock drafting and identifying those impact players that you really want on your squad this season. This posting is based on PPR scoring, leagues of 12 or greater, and having the guts to draft the players you see as differentiators!
When preparing for drafts I prefer to tier players at positions and then select per tier which players I see as targets. Targets are based on few variables such as volume, health/injury history, age, schedule, and raw athletic ability. Looking at the top tier Wide Receivers for the 2018 season, my top five include Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Odell Beckham Jr, Keenan Allen and Michael Thomas.
I can hear all the “NO JULIO!?” chants as I write this and after rostering him in multiple leagues last season I am officially on team #NeverJulio despite his target monster status. The addition of Calvin Ridley coupled with Matt Ryan’s inability to get him the ball in the red-zone has me steering clear unless he falls considerably from his current ADP.
Let’s say we had 1.04 pick with Lev Bell, Todd Gurley and David Johnson off the board. I would be considering Zeke Elliott, Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, and Saquon Barkley (no specific order there) going forward. In all honesty, I’m not a big fan of Elliott in PPR and his schedule this season. As a huge Giants fan, I even have reservations drafting Barkley this high with the new scheme and being a rookie. Not to mention playing in the harshest market in sports, the schedule, and the stupid signing of Jonathan Stewart to steal some goal-line work!
After those assessments, we come to Brown vs. Hopkins. I love Brown and have rostered him as much as possible to date. Honestly, he is probably the safest play at this point, but safest plays do not usually win championships. I understand the argument that you DO NOT get cute in the first round. However, taking a guy that you believe will outperform the others is a rational move. So if this scenario unfolded I’d take Hopkins at 1.04 and here’s why.
Hopkin’s Career Stats per Pro Football Reference:
| Year | Age | Games | Targets | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD |
| 2013 | 21 | 16 | 91 | 52 | 802 | 15.4 | 2 |
| 2014 | 22 | 16 | 127 | 76 | 1210 | 15.9 | 6 |
| 2015 | 23 | 16 | 192 | 111 | 1521 | 13.7 | 11 |
| 2016 | 24 | 16 | 151 | 78 | 954 | 12.2 | 4 |
| 2017 | 25 | 15 | 174 | 96 | 1378 | 14.4 | 13 |
| Career | 79 | 735 | 413 | 5865 | 14.2 | 36 | |
Those are career averages of 147 targets, 83 receptions, 1173 yards and 7 Tds. Those are pretty solid numbers for a guy that is only 26 years old and has 5 NFL seasons under his belt. Oh, and you all have heard that phrase “There is nothing better than availability” right? Over the last five seasons he has missed just one game. That game was last season with a toe injury. The larger issue has been the rotation of sub-par talent at Quarterback for the Texans since drafting Hopkins.
Take a look at who has taken a meaningful snap during each season of Hopkins career.
| Season | Starter | #2 | #3(s) |
| 2013 | Matt Schaub | Case Keenum | N/A |
| 2014 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | Case Keenum | Ryan Mallett |
| 2015 | Bryan Hoyer | Ryan Mallett | T.J.Yates/Brandon Weeden |
| 2016 | Brock Osweiler | Tom Savage | N/A |
| 2017 | Tom Savage | Deshaun Watson | T.J.Yates |
With the exception of Fitzpatrick, Hoyer (maybe), and the savior of the Houston Texans, Deshaun Watson they all SUCK! Watson definitely resurrected the Texans offense when he took over in Week 2 of last season. Unfortunately, every Watson owner from last season can still feel the fantasy production pain when he tore his ACL in practice. That was right after they went into Seattle and played one of my personal favorite regular season contests of the 2017 season. So we have a sample, albeit it could be considered small, of what expectations we can make for the Hopkins/Watson connection in 2018.
With Watson under center, let’s take a look at Hopkins outputs from Weeks 2 – 8.
| Week | Against | Targets | Catches | Yards | TDs | PPRÂ |
| Week 2 | Bengals | 13 | 7 | 73 | 0 | 14.3 |
| Week 3 | Patriots | 8 | 7 | 76 | 0 | 14.6 |
| Week 4 | Titans | 12 | 10 | 107 | 1 | 26.7 |
| Week 5 | Chiefs | 12 | 4 | 52 | 3 | 27.2 |
| Week 6 | Browns | 4 | 2 | 19 | 1 | 9.9 |
| Week 8 | Hawks | 11 | 8 | 224 | 1 | 36.4 |
| Totals | 60 | 38 | 551 | 6 | 129.1 | |
| Average | 10 | 6.33 | 91.83 | 1 | 21.5 |
Ok sure, he didn’t have a great game against the Browns but he got in the end-zone. Sure, he didn’t get in the end-zone versus the Bengals or Patriots, but he did have 7 receptions for 70+ yards in both of those contest. This represents a super solid floor, something Julio lacked in my opinion last season. Hopkins ceiling with Watson running the offense is very high. It is just as high and potentially higher than that of Brown (also an opinion). So if we were to extrapolate these stats out over a 16 games season he would have a stat line of:
| Targets | Receptions | Yards | TDs | PPR Points |
| 160 | 101 | 1469 | 16 | 344.3 |
I do think this is high on touchdowns and I would project closer to 12-14 which would take his PPR total down 12-24 points. So lets now take a look at the top 10 fantasy wideouts from ESPN PPR leagues in 2017 and how he compares.
| PLAYER | Â Â REC | Â Â YDS | Â Â Â TD | Â Â TARGETS | PPR PTS |
| Antonio Brown | 101 | 1533 | 9 | 162 | 310.3 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 96 | 1378 | 13 | 175 | 309.8 |
| Keenan Allen | 102 | 1393 | 6 | 159 | 284.2 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 109 | 1156 | 6 | 162 | 261.4 |
| Jarvis Landry | 112 | 987 | 9 | 160 | 260 |
| Michael Thomas | 104 | 1245 | 5 | 149 | 258.5 |
| Julio Jones | 88 | 1444 | 3 | 149 | 251.9 |
| Tyreek Hill | 75 | 1183 | 7 | 105 | 245.2 |
| Adam Thielen | 91 | 1276 | 4 | 143 | 239.7 |
| A.J. Green | 75 | 1078 | 8 | 145 | 226.8 |
Hopkins finished less than one point behind Brown last season!
I have absolutely zero problems with taking Antonio Brown over DeAndre Hopkins. However, I think based on the data we have gone over above, there is a legitimate chance that barring injury of either player that Hopkins can produce the stats to finish as the WR1 in the 2018 fantasy football season. You don’t usually win your league sticking to the status quo and this is one player that can put up the numbers you need from your first pick week in and week out.
We are currently going under the knife for a full makeover to prepare for the 2018 NFL Season. Our podcast has been moved to a new address but you can Subscribe on almost every podcast platform (I will provide links below).
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Keep on rocking and get ready for a big game changing season!!
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Fast cars, fast women, the vibrations running up your legs… ooooh sweet NASCAR. The season is over and Martin Truex Jr took the cake in Miami in true fashion. We lost legend driver Dale Jr. to retirement and Denny Hamlin still hates Chase Elliott. Pretty certain anyway. So what comes now? February is right around the corner and I for one want to see more excitement out of this sport. I come from an era where you go round and fucking round and whoever wins just wins. That’s it. Dunzo. Now you’ve got all these stages and self proclaimed “Viewership Experts” trying to make it more of an “Acceptable” sport. HELLO!? This sport was created off the running of moonshine! Your fan base is a bunch of wild as fuck blue collar people. Shit I’m one of them. (Ive cut a mean rug at Dega in my day) What’s it gonna take to get the numbers up in this fucking sport!? Im on board with taking a history lesson and going back to the days of old. 80s and 90s style. Rock of ages. Marshall Tucker band type shit. We need that. The drivers need that. The Fans need that. If Donald Trump is making America great again why the fuck cant NASCAR be great again!? Everyone should at least go to one race in their lifetime and experience that type of madness. It’s basically like a BillsMafia Tailgate guest starred in an episode of Dukes of Hazard. It’s wild and I cant stress it enough. I’d love to see NASCAR make more of an impact in the fantasy sports world but sadly its gonna take the sport making it big again before we can see the amount of traffic fantasy football and baseball get. It’s kinda like fantasy hockey and with that unless you bring back more fighting, you’ll be fighting for ratings. Moral of the story is that NASCAR is a down home American ordeal and deep down inside of all of us there’s a wild hair waiting to sprout for fast, dirty, badass American speed.
